Kremlin Americanologists almost never get things right, or do they?
Consider Dean Reed. The Denver-born, folk-rock star of the 1960s and 70s was pushed by Moscow as the exemplar of Marxism at work with world youth. Reed chose to live in East Germany while singing about nuclear disarmament. Problem was, while the Kremlin was promoting clean-cut Reed, long-haired American youth were tripping or turned on to the Rolling Stones or Jimi Hendrix.
Now comes Igor Panarin, a former KGB America analyst who says that the U.S. will disintegrate in the summer of 2010. Western states from Arizona on will reorganize under California, southern-tier states from Georgia to New Mexico will form a republic dominated by Mexico, much of the Midwest will be in Canadian hegemony and the East Coast, including New York and Washington power centers, will become part of the European Union.
Alaska, of course, will go back to Russia where it was pre-1849 and pre-Sarah Palin. Hawaii will be dominated by either Japan or China, Panarin hasn't decided which.
Panarin says there's a 45 to 55 percent chance this will happen and much of it, obviously, has to do with the current economic downturn and the influx of immigrants.
Will he be right? Who knows, but the Soviet Union did fall apart with astonishing speed in 1991.
CEOs might want to plan their marketing efforts accordingly.