Twila Finally Woke Up

This analysis of "Survivor: Vanuatu"'s latest episode is by columnist Greg Feltes of CBS station WBBM in Chicago, who offers weekly commentary on the popular reality TV show.

She was honest. While Twila was essentially offering her son up as a sacrifice to the gods, Leann made the fatal mistake of committing the sin of honesty. Amazingly, despite all evidence to the contrary, Scout and Twila still believed they had a chance to crack the final three. There was absolutely no need to correct them. Instead, Leann flat out told them that she, Ami and Julie had a final three alliance. Did she really expect that Scout and Twila would just accept finishing fifth and fourth? This admission is what ignited the rebellion.

She strayed from a bulletproof plan. After playing the game ruthlessly with incredible efficiency and discipline, the female alliance finally softened just a little bit and that was just enough for Chris to throw the whole game into chaos.

Yes, Chris was probably more deserving of sticking around, but since when does fairness come into play in "Survivor"? Did Gretchen win season one? Eliza could and should have been tolerated for three more days and then dealt with. By making her a target, Leann showed Scout and Twila disloyalty and signaled to them that the original agreement was out the window.

It didn't help that Julie informed Chris that he was staying and thus had options. It gave him time to scramble and find an even better deal.

She was cocky. It was Ami and Leann's arrogance that softened the alliance into making a poor decision. You should always assume the worst in this game. Eliza made an excellent player because she was on alert and paranoid. Worse, Leann's confidence was unwarranted. Both Scout and Twila had openly discussed breaking from the alliance on several occasions.

Twila and Scout finally wised up. Much of Leann's success in the game was due to the fact that she was competing against people who weren't playing smart. She wasn't a brilliant strategist, but she was facing sub par competition that too often could be fooled and reassured at the same time. Twila, in particular, had missed several golden opportunities for advancement, but finally woke up and saw that the numbers benefited her. It reminded me of when Darrah, Lillian and Sandra ousted Burton in the Pearl Islands after playing like sheep for the entire game.

Individual Analysis:

• Chris, 33 - Chris hasn't been able to focus on long-term strategy lately. His game has been all about lasting three more days. He outlasted Lea and Chad by (probably intentionally) not faring well in challenges and showing a willingness to be a good sport even though he was supposedly doomed. He would even have outlasted Eliza if he had done nothing else this episode.

  Inevitably, alliances crack; it's just a matter of when. Chris somehow managed to buy himself enough time to be around to capitalize on it.

  Chris might not win in the end, but he has proven to be one of the most resourceful "Survivor" players of all time. Future "Survivor" contestants would do well to take notes on how he handled adversity and never panicked. By all rights, he should have been gone in episode one because of how poorly he played in the immunity challenge. However, he kept a level head and has survived way longer than he deserves.

  The question now becomes what he does with this good fortune. The first thing he needs to do is acquire a final two partner. These turn of events will mean nothing if Eliza/Scout/Twila form a bond and block his path to victory. Chris has to be able to force at least a tie when it comes down to the final four. His safest bet is Eliza, since she hates Scout and doesn't seem likely to mesh with Twila. Another benefit of partnering with Eliza is that she isn't well liked by anyone on the jury.

• Julie, 23 - Julie's motivation to keep Chris abreast of his status will likely forever remain a mystery. Perhaps it was an ill-conceived plot to win his jury vote. Whatever the case, Julie's big mouth gave Chris the motivation to talk to Twila and we all know how that has turned out.

  It's sad because Julie had played a pretty good game up to this point. Her mind games with Twila were masterful and had a big payoff. Now, she's in Chris' position of having to scramble.

  Her smartest play is to throw Ami under the bus and go from there. If she can make it to the final five, Julie can make a pitch to Chris/Eliza or Scout/Twila that she can ensure them a final three bid. Her worst nightmare is Ami winning immunity yet again.

• Twila, 41 - Maybe she had this planned all along and had everyone fooled. However, it's more likely that it took approximately 30 days, but Twila finally woke up and played the game and now finds herself in a terrific position.

  Obviously, four is more than three, but the game isn't that simple. If Twila or Scout had approached Eliza, she might not have believed them and gone straight to Ami and ratted them out. Instead, Twila wisely utilized Chris as an intermediary.

  The key now is to add Chris or Eliza to her alliance with Scout, so she can ensure herself a berth in the final three.

  It will probably go unnoticed in all of the hoopla due to the big shift, but Twila again made the mistake of revealing a failed plot to Ami and Julie. It could have very easily been her instead of Eliza who became a target. Hopefully, she can play smarter and keep her secrets closer to her chest.

• Scout, 59 - Scout didn't allow her resentment and dislike for Eliza to blind her and it paid off. It was always clear that she was uncomfortable with the way things were, but she never had the resolve to follow through with her idle talk of uprising.

  She should have realized a lot earlier that Julie had usurped her position in the alliance. Scout was extremely lucky that Leann and Ami were honest. Her willingness to lie when they wouldn't completely changed the game. It would have been easy to target Eliza and then make a move next week, but Scout correctly sensed the urgency of the situation.

  The key now becomes preventing Ami to somehow work her voodoo on everyone else. Discipline and dishonesty are the keys to stopping that from happening.

• Eliza, 21 - This can't possibly last, can it? Time and time again, Eliza is targeted by someone and he ends up booted for his troubles.

  The young 'un also deserves credit for not allowing her dislike for Scout to cloud her judgment. It was a big risk to believe Chris, but you have to take a chance at least once in the game to win. It didn't hurt that she had very little too lose.

  She needs to find a partner, but that might be difficult because she is young and annoying. Perhaps she can work something out with a desperate Julie.

• Ami, 31 - Ami probably left tribal council and beat herself up mentally for what happened and she should. She didn't trust her instincts, which had gotten her so far in the game.

  Letting Leann change the target from Chris to Eliza opened up a can of worms that ultimately led to her strongest ally's dismissal. It was at that critical juncture that Ami, as a leader, should have stepped in and said no. Her discipline and ruthlessness had been her strongest assets and not utilizing them may lead to her dismissal next week.

  On the surface, Ami has very few options. She must adopt the mindset that Chris did and play to outlast Julie and hope something breaks her way. The only caveat to that strategy is that she has a lot less time than Chris did.

My current ultimate Survivor pick: Twila. She's in pretty good with Chris and Scout without being hated by Eliza. In terms of jury vote, despite being betrayed by her, Lea and Chad probably would side with her over anyone else, with the obvious exception of Chris.