Turkey's Move A 'Glitch' In War Plans

Turkey's apparent decision not to allow the United States to launch an invasion of Iraq from its territory is a "glitch" in U.S. war planning, says CBS News military consultant Gen. Perry Smith, but not a "major setback."

Gen. Smith, USAF ret., tells CBSNews.com's Joel Roberts that Turkey's move "will extend the war in time and probably cause it to kick off a little later." But it's not "a major impediment because the Iraqi regime is in such terrible shape."

Without Turkey's involvement, Smith says the start date of an attack would likely be pushed back two or three days and the war would probably last about three weeks instead of two.

However more people may die as a result of Turkey's decision. That's not because the situation would more lethal, but because "every day you're at war more people die." Instead of 500 Iraqi civilians killed, Smith says there could be as many as 800, and the number of American solders killed could reach 100.

U.S. war planners had hoped to deploy some 62,000 U.S. combat troops in Turkey. The Pentagon envisioned attacks on Iraq from Turkey in the north and Kuwait in the south, which would complicate Iraq's defense planning and ease U.S. logistical problems.

As an alternative, Smith suggests U.S. ships that had planned on unloading in Turkey could head to ports in Bulgaria or Romania, which have been very forthcoming and eager to help the war effort. U.S. forces would then be flown from airfields in those countries to bases in northern Iraq that are under Kurd control, and where U.S. Special Forces have already set up camp.

In such a scenario, Smith says the U.S. would not have "as robust and strong a northern front" but should have no problem achieving its goals.

The difficulty in securing Turkey's cooperation was not entirely unanticipated by U.S. war planners, Smith says. "The Pentagon has been working for eight months on a non-Turkish option," so military strategists are not in a panic mode now, but they are working very hard to come up with a final plan because the war appears to be so close.

It's still not clear whether Turkey's decision on U.S. troops is final. Reconsideration could come as early as Tuesday, but the head of Turkey's ruling party said Sunday there are no plans in the "foreseeable future" to seek another parliamentary vote.

But even should Turkey come around and agree at the 11th hour to allow U.S. forces in, it's probably too late to mount as large an assault from Turkey as had originally been planned. "Unless ships started unloading today," says Smith, "there's not enough time to get the entire 4th Division into Turkey in time" for an invasion that could begin around March 18.

Several senators were less sanguine about the impact of Turkey's decision on U.S war plans.

"It's a huge setback for our purposes. It stunned me," Sen. Jay Rockefeller of West Virginia, ranking Democrat on the Intelligence Committee, said on CNN's "Late Edition." "We spent the last 50 years defending them in NATO. And along comes this opportunity, and by three votes they decline the opportunity to allow us to come in through the north."

By Joel Roberts