Tourney Bubble Means Trouble

The Bubble. You're either on it, off it or close to it.

The term might be the most dreaded in college basketball. It usually signifies a team that hasn't quite lived up to expectations.

With that in mind, we offer not only this week's CBS SportsLine tournament bracket, but also those teams lingering around the edges.

After close scrutiny, we've come up with an "elite" group of 18 teams on the outside looking in. What's it going to take? First, try to forget about the RPI at this point. While it is important, the selection committee is more concerned with how a team is playing lately. That means hot teams with a low RPI (New Mexico) could get in while teams with a high RPI that are sputtering (Minnesota) could be left out.

It's also important that champions from smaller conferences (College of Charleston, Niagara, etc.) defend those titles in conference tournaments to ensure NCAA berths.

So with less than two weeks until Selection Sunday, we present the best teams not in the tournament.

We've researched each team's tournament profile and come up with its RPI (SportsLine's version), record against the current SportsLine tournament field and record in the past 10 games. In certain cases, we've also noted key stats like road record and record against the top 100.

If nothing else, we've given the NIT a head start on its selection process.

1. Mississippi State (18-9, 8-6 in the SEC)

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Robert Jackson and Mississippi State hope to muscle their way into the tournament. (AP)

The Bulldogs could win 20 games and be left out.

A horrible non-conference schedule (Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Northwestern State, Belmont, Tennessee-Martin, Sam Houston, Jacksonville State and Centenary, to name just a few) has dragged down Mississippi State's RPI. Plus, it has lost five of its past seven on the road.

It is coming off a big victory over Mississippi on Saturday. It's season, though, might come down to the regular-season finale this Saturday against Auburn. Win and the Bulldogs are in.

RPI: 89
Vs. field: 3-6
Last 10: 6-4

2. Minnesota (15-8, 6-7 in the Big Ten)

There's not much to distinguish the Gophers from the rest of the field -- except that they have the highest RPI of any team not in the tournament.

No at-large team with an RPI better than 31 has been left out of the bracket. The Gophers are fading fast, having lost their past six games on the road and three of the past four overall. On the plus side, there was a one-point loss to Cincinnati. There als are victories over Indiana and Iowa.

The Gophers still have a last chance. There is a home-and-home with Purdue this week before the season finale Saturday at Northwestern.

RPI: 23
Vs. field: 4-6
Last 10: 5-5

3. Wake Forest (15-11, 6-8 in the ACC)

The fax machines at the ACC office are cranking out positive spins on the Demon Deacons. It's going to look bad if the nation's second-best conference has only three teams in the tournament.

The ACC desperately wants Wake to be No. 4. It isn't going to be easy. Dave Odom's team has been maddeningly inconsistent. It has lost its last five road games and is only 3-7 away from Winston-Salem. The committee likes to see how a team does away from its home court.

The only hope is to split the last two against North Carolina and North Carolina State and make some kind of run in the ACC tournament. Perhaps Duke could loan Odom a player or two in the name of ACC brotherhood.

RPI: 52
Vs. field: 1-7
Last 10: 4-6

4. Nebraska (17-10, 9-5 in the Big 12)

No Big 12 team that has won 18 games overall and nine in the conference has ever missed the NCAA tournament.

Will the Huskers be the first? Losses last week to Oklahoma State and Texas Tech might have doomed their chances.

They still have games left against Kansas State and Texas A&M. Those look like victories, but who knows in the topsy-turvy Big 12?

If Nebraska doesn't make it, center Venson Hamilton will be the best player not to be in the tournament. The senior came out of North Carolina as an academic casualty and developed into an NBA prospect.

RPI: 43
Vs. field: 4-6
Last 10: 7-3

5. Tulsa (19-8, 7-5 in the WAC)

It's neck and neck between the Golden Hurricane and TCU for the final at-large spot this week.

We gave it to TCU based on its 76-72 victory at UNLV on Monday. Otherwise, the Horned Frogs and Hurricane are mirror images of each other. Both are 10-5 against the top 100. Both have RPIs in the 30s. Both have star players who have NBA careers ahead -- Tulsa's Michael Ruffin and TCU's Lee Nailon.

It comes down to this: Tulsa's best victory this season was early at Nebraska. TCU has beaten Providence, Mid-Continent champion Oral Roberts, Southwest Missouri State and Gonzaga.

TCU coach Billy Tubbs has shown a willingness to play tough teams. TCU started 15-3 but has gone 3-5 down the stretch. Tulsa started 12-2 but is 7-6 down the stretch. The Hurricane still have tough regular-season games left at SMU and at TCU. Saturday's game in Fort Worth could be for an NCAA berth.

RPI: 39
Vs. field: 3-2
Last 10: 5-5

6. New Mexico (21-6, 8-4 in the WAC)

The biggest quandary of the bubble: What to do with the Lobos?

They have won 20 games and beaten Arizona but have played only four teams in our braket. A four-game winning streak notwithstanding, the Lobos probably will have to win the WAC tournament to get in. Their weak non-conference schedule included Simon Fraser, Conrell, Arkansas-Pine Bluff and Texas-Pan American.

The result is a horrid RPI. Hey, Dave Bliss, show some guts and schedule some real teams. This is college basketball's version of Kansas State football.

RPI: 91
Vs. field: 2-2
Last 10: 6-4

7. Georgia (15-11, 6-8 in the SEC)

Quick -- name one of only two teams to beat College of Charleston this year.

The 'Dogs had bite early but stumbled while losing five consecutive conference games in January. The future is not rosy. Georgia must sweep its remaining games against Tennessee and South Carolina to finish .500 in the league. Then it must win a couple in the SEC tournament.

RPI: 37
Vs. field: 2-9
Last 10: 3-7

8. Creighton (18-8, 11-7 in the Missouri Valley)

The Blue Jays completed their regular season Monday with a victory over Wichita State.

If they make a run in the MVC tournament this weekend, the NCAA Basketball Committee would love to let them in. The Valley is having its best season in years, ranked seventh overall in RPI. The country also needs to see guard Rodney Buford.

The Jays beat Iowa and split with conference champion Evansville. They ended the season by winning four of five.

RPI: 57
Vs. field: 2-4
Last 10: 6-4

9. Providence (15-12, 8-9 in the Big East)

The Friars had it all in front of them Monday but couldn't knock off Connecticut at home.

Now it's going to take a victory over Georgetown and a run all the way to the Big East title game for the committee to even take notice.

RPI: 60
Vs. field: 5-8
Last 10: 4-6

10. Gonzaga (22-6, 12-2 in the West Coast)

Despite a conference title, the Bulldogs' position is tenuous.

If they get upset in the WCC tournament, that could be it. They have played tough teams (Kansas, Purdue, Detroit) but have won precious few against major competition. The best victory was against Washington back on Dec. 8. The committee's memory might not be that long.

RPI: 49
Vs. field: 1-4
Last 10: 8-2

11. Princeton (18-6, 9-2 in the Ivy)

The Tigers are falling apart, having lost to Yale and Harvard in the past 10 days. That's no disgrace if we're talking about crew, but it's downright embarrassing in Division I basketball, especially after Princeton clawed out a historic victory over Penn.

If the Tigers don't win the Ivy League -- they trail Penn by a game -- their chances will be almost nil. Their RPI is horrid despite victories over Alabama-Birmingham, Texas and North Carolina-Charlotte.

With three games to go, Princeton must beat Cornell and Columbia before playing host to Penn with an NAA berth on the line. Princeton won the epic first meeting 50-49 on Feb. 9. If the teams tie, they will play off for the NCAA berth. No date or site has been determined.

RPI: 105
Vs. field: 4-2
Last 10: 8-2

12. Kent (20-5, 13-4 in the MAC)

Miami (Ohio) has gotten most of the attention in the WAC this season. But the Golden Flashes quietly have put themselves in position to win the regular-season conference title.

With one game left in the season, Kent trails MAC East Division leader Miami by a game. If it wins Wednesday night at Miami, it would tie for the conference title at 14-4. The Flashes would get the No. 1 seed in the MAC tournament because it would have swept Miami.

Kent is 8-4 on the road and has won seven consecutive games. In addition to Miami, it also beat North Carolina-Charlotte. Its last NCAA berth? Never.

RPI: 40
Vs. field: 3-1
Last 10: 8-2

13. Fresno State (18-10, 7-5 in the WAC)

On life support and fading fast.

Tark's team lost its bite by losing three of its past four games, including an 88-82 thriller to Utah on Saturday. The Bulldogs are only 3-8 on the road. Their best victories are over Georgia and Temple.

RPI: 55
Vs. field: 2-4
Last 10: 6-4

14. UNLV (15-10, 8-4 in the WAC)

Monday's loss to TCU was a killer. The Rebels now have lost three of their past four games, despite leading the WAC Mountain Division. Bruising forward Kaspars Kambala also is out for the season due to an injury. The committee will take that into consideration.

UNLV's worst problem is that is has no good victories. It's hard to get fired up over a one-point victory at Tulsa last week.

RPI: 58
Vs. field: 1-5
Last 10: 5-5

15. New Mexico State (18-9, 10-4 in the Big West)

We'd leave the Aggies out expect that 1) they won at Wisconsin and beat New Mexico in Las Cruces, and 2) we'd love to see Lou Henson back in the tournament.

The Ags don't have much of a tournament profile and are tied with Cal-Santa Barbara (12-12 overall) for second place in the conference. But they still have two regular-season games left and could overtake Boise State for the top seed.

RPI: 92
Vs. field: 1-2
Last 10: 6-4

16. Valparaiso (20-8, 10-4 in the Mid-Continent)

The darling of last year's tournament is scrambling.

A three-game losing streak in early February knocked Valparaiso out of first place. Despite tying Oral Roberts at 10-4 in the conference, the Golden Eagles got the top seed in the postseason tournament because of a tiebreaker. Oral Roberts gets a first-round bye in the Mid-Con tournament beginning Sunday. Valparaiso has to play seventh-seed Chicago State in the first round.

Valpo was the only Division I team in the country to win both its regular-season and conferene tournament titles the past four years. It will have to win its fifth consecutive postseason tournament to get into this year's dance.

RPI: 152
Vs. field: 1-1
Last 10: 7-3

17. Oregon (14-10, 6-9 in the Pac-10)

A long, long, longshot for the Pac-10, but the Ducks have won four of their past five and finish with three at home against Oregon State, Stanford and Cal.

RPI: 41
Vs. field: 1-6
Last 10: 4-6

18. Arizona State (14-12, 6-8 in the Pac-10)

We would write the Sun Devils off, except they have Stanford, Cal, UCLA and USC left.

They aren't likely to beat them, but if they do ...

RPI: 68
Vs. field: 2-7
Last 10: 4-6

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