World

The Gulf Showdown That Wasn't

By CBSNews.com staff CBSNews.com staff

October 22, 1998 / 8:30 AM EDT / CBS

Instead of drawing the ire of the West, Iraq's risky move 10 weeks ago to block U.N. weapons inspections has gone virtually unchallenged.

In fact, support is growing for an acknowledgment that Iraq has complied with some of its disarmament obligations, and thus an easing of eight years of sanctions finally can be considered.

How times have changed since February, when the United States and Britain punished Iraq for blocking inspections of eight presidential palaces by threatening to drop bombs on Baghdad.

Now, with dwindling domestic and international support for a tough line against Iraqi President Saddam Hussein's regime, Washington and London have delegated negotiations on the impasse to the U.N. chief while they deal with Kosovo and the Middle East peace process.

Many diplomats point to a change of heart in February, when top U.S. administration officials were heckled, live on CNN, at Ohio State University, where they had gone to justify the military threat. Audience members shouted anti-war slogans and demanded an end to sanctions they said are impoverishing a majority of Iraqis.

This is not to say the prospect of lifting sanctions is near. No Security Council member (the United States in particular) is willing to concede that Iraq has fulfilled all its obligations to destroy its weapons of mass destruction. All agree that it must do so before sanctions imposed after the 1990 invasion of Kuwait are lifted.

Before the sanctions are lifted, Iraq must comply with U.N. demands to resume cooperation with inspectors and disclose information about banned weapons: nuclear, chemical, and missiles.

Chemical weapons experts are meeting Thursday and Friday to discuss the results of tests for deadly VX nerve gas on Iraqi missile warheads, meetings that could bolster assertions Iraq hasn't been truthful about its chemical weapons program.

But members of the council, the U.N. chief, and even inspectors themselves are much more willing today to acknowledge that they will never know whether Iraq has destroyed all its banned weapons. As a result, and thanks to a divided council, pressures are increasing to rein in the inspectors' open-ended mandate and simply map out what else needs to be done in order to end the sanctions.

U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan said on Thursday he believed Iraq was being constructive in dealing with the Security Council on the matter.

The Security Council is considering nine queries from Iraq on terms for a full-fledged review of the sanctions imposed for the 1990 Gulf War.

The so-called "comprehensive review" was promised by the council once Iraq lifted an August decree suspending cooperation with U.N. arms inspectors who it said were U.S. spies.

Iraq's Deputy Prime Minister Tareq Aziz has linked what he termed the nine clarifications to lifting the ban that now limits the U.N. Special Commission, in charge of Iraqi disarmament, to insecting sites it has already surveyed.

"I think that the Iraqis are looking at the issue in a constructive manner," Annan told a news conference during a visit to Tokyo.

"I hope they will take the right decision and work with the council, because my sense is that they realize the only way they can get the sanctions lifted is by cooperating with the Security Council," he added.

Some council members believe Iraq's questions resembled conditions and have said no reply should be given before Baghdad rescinded the inspection ban.