The Foley-Vitter-Craig Plot To Save GOP

This commentary was written by CBSNews.com's Dick Meyer.

So in some smoke-filled room, or at least a laptop filled room, nervous Democratic opposition researchers are trying to connect the Foley-Vitter-Craig dots. Because only a nit-wit could believe that three very sordid scandals could scourge the GOP in one session of Congress by sheer coincidence. Democrats do not believe in a God that generous.

I am told Democratic counter-operatives are pursuing three conspiracy theories at this point.

The Gay Wedge: The idea here is that Republicans are trying to split the traditionally Democratic gay and "sexually permissive" vote by enlisting sympathy for victims like Mark Foley (priest abuse) and Larry Craig (police state intrusiveness). David Vitter, Louisiana Senator who was on the infamous D.C. Madam's call list (and apparently a few others) is obviously a smokescreen.

A wedge issue splits a constituency traditionally loyal to one party. Republicans know how to use them and Democrats don't. In between Nixon's two wins, Republicans realized they couldn't allow Southern white males to keep voting for conservative, segregationist Democrats. They needed them to vote for conservative, segregationist Republicans.

So Republicans started talking trash about gun control, which the Democrats like but Southern white males hate. That's a wedge issue. Affirmative action was a terrific Republican wedge issue, as were the death penalty and busing. Abortion has worked well for them in recent years, along with immigration and, of course, gay marriage.

The brass ring for wily Republicans would be to split the hardcore leftie voter. Enter Foley and Craig. If Republicans can get just 20 percent of the demographic pod they have secretly code-named "Spawn of Satan" they can win.

There is a long tradition of closeted hyper-conservatives who publicly attack homosexuality. Sen. Joseph McCarthy's chief lieutenant, the creepy Roy Cohn, died of AIDS and was long said to be gay. J. Edgar Hoover was rumored to be gay. Terry Dolan, the director of the arch-right NCPAC, the first PAC to run mega-negative campaign ads, also died of AIDS after being rumored to be gay.

Republicans are counting on this twisted tradition to give their ploy plausibility.

The Straight Wedge: This is a far more psychologically sophisticated plot. It is based on research in brain science that shows all men have a deep-seated fear of getting caught - at something. Polls show that a long, unpopular bloody war, contrary to Republican predictions, has actually eroded support for President Bush and his party among white males. Who'd have thunk? This was a malfunction. A major malfunction.

Calling Democrats a bunch of wusses is the traditional Republican way of appealing to white male voters. It could be ineffective in '08 so the GOP needs a Plan B. "Straight Wedge" is an attempt to subliminally appeal to the male fear of getting caught being naughty. It also (and here's the daring brilliance) taps into an ancient male syndrome known as Hypocritical Blowharditis.

You see, deep inside every masculine id resides a dread that the paternal ego that goes around uttering groundless opinions and making random rules and judging other people will be exposed as pretend or make-believe. Hypocritical Blowharditis in severe forms makes men act out even more as they try to stem the tide of shame.

Republicans orchestrated the Foley, Vitter and Craig affairs as psycho-dramatizations of the nightmare ending - getting caught and exposed. Foley, the protector of children, plays cyber sex games with boys. Vitter, the family moralist, is caught using call girls. Craig, the snarling mean guy, is accused of stalling. Across the country, white males experience relief and schadenfreude. They will unconsciously express their gratitude to Republicans in the voting booth.

Including homosexual scandals is especially ingenious because it allows many white male voters to retain a feeling of moral superiority during their cathartic relief knowing that some other schnook is getting busted wide open.

If Hillary Clinton is the nominee, the Democrats won't have a prayer. The Republicans will subliminally portray her as the Archetypal Woman Who Catches Men.

Democrats are living in fear of the next scandal but expect several.

The Diversion This is the simple plan and Democrats discount it, though they are formulating a counter-attack.

Republicans are vulnerable for one reason and one reason only: Iraq. Voters need to be distracted from Iraq. A series of Republican scandals will lay the groundwork for mega-scandals in '08. In December, they will orchestrate one more Foley-Vitter-Craig level mess while simultaneously pulling U.S. troops out of Iraq.

After the nominee is chosen, Project Diversion/Dirty Tricks Division will initiate a series of Democratic scandals. By the fall, Iraq will be a third tier issue. More scandals will eclipse ancient memories of a distant war. And the Republicans will win.

Obviously these theories remain just that, theories. It just isn't plausible that three such extreme cases of public-private hypocrisy in the Republican party could be a coincidence. Right?