The Cheney Factor

News Analysis by David Paul Kuhn, CBSNews.com Chief Political Writer

Speaking at the Republican Governor's Association in February, President Bush said he had "taken the measure of this man," of Cheney, and "they don't come any better."

It was one of the first major addresses of President Bush's reelection campaign and he used the occasion to assert why Cheney is invaluable.

For all the government investigations Cheney has been linked to, for all that Cheney lacks in charisma and for all the blame bestowed on him for the instability in Iraq, the president stands by his number two.

It is what Mr. Bush does best. He stood by Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld amid congressional calls for his resignation after the Abu Ghraib prisoner abuse scandal. He stood by George Tenet, former head of the CIA, through the agency's botched Iraqi intelligence. By all indications, Mr. Bush only begrudgingly accepted Tenet's resignation last month; it was Tenet's choice, not the president's.

Cheney polls awfully with the American people. One poll showed that even 28 percent of Republicans think Mr. Bush should drop him. But to Mr. Bush, and many who know this White House, Cheney's lack of public appeal is irrelevant next to his appeal for this president and to the political right that supports him.

Cheney is a veteran of Washington veterans. He will never run for president and is Mr. Bush's chief aide de camp, as well as his greatest advocate.

Critics have accused Cheney of "grab and goes." He rushes to New York or south Florida for a fundraiser, speaks and leaves. Rarely is there a news conference. But his pivotal fundraising role and dogged promotion of Mr. Bush to the political right have proven his worth to those inside the Bush-Cheney campaign.

"If Bush ditches Cheney for Collin Powell, or someone who would be a more popular figure with swing voters or Independents, that would partly be offset by the price he would pay with his base of ideological conservatives," said David Greenberg, a Yale historian who has studied the vice presidency. "Bush is just like his father, a man of great loyalty to people who have served him well. I think he views Cheney as a loyal man."

Where most politicians seek the spotlight, Cheney is content in the shadows, spending much of his time in a secret bunker in an undisclosed location. Cheney is considered among the most influential vice presidents ever, though he rarely headlines a political pep rally. Gone are the days when Franklin Roosevelt's first vice president, John Garner, said in 1933, "the vice-presidency isn't worth a pitcher of warm piss."

Those in the White House believe anyone who would not vote for Mr. Bush because of Cheney would not vote for Mr. Bush regardless.

For every reason Sen. John Kerry may pick Sen. John Edwards as his vice president, President Bush has the opposite reason for sticking with Cheney.
Edwards would pull Kerry to the center. Cheney holds the Republican base solidly behind the president.

Edwards would compensate for Kerry's lackluster speaking style with his exciting oratory. Cheney is about as exciting as he is young. And Cheney is not a young 63.

Where Kerry, by all indications, in unsure about Edwards experience, Mr. Bush trusted Cheney with running the nation's initial response to the Sept. 11 attacks. After all, Cheney has been everything from Gerald Ford's chief of staff, to an influential congressman, to the Secretary of Defense during the first Gulf War.

Mr. Bush chose Cheney initially because of both this experience and his discretionary loyalty. During the Gulf War, for example, Cheney never failed to speak as President George H.W. Bush's nameless surrogate.

Trust, clearly, is a primary reason why Cheney remains on the Republican ticket.

Cheney could have claimed health problems and stayed on as a senior adviser (he still could, although it's unlikely at this late stage of the campaign). His importance to President Bush lies precisely in both the man and the position he occupies.

Cheney will never run for president; his poor health precludes it. But Mr. Bush trusts Cheney to fulfill the duties of the presidency should tragedy befall him.

"Now some people have a more conspiratorial notion," Greenberg said. "That is, that Cheney is not likely to be a viable candidate himself and that clears the way for Jeb Bush to be the Republican standard bearer after George."

Gov. Jeb Bush heads the biggest swing state of them all, Florida. Yet it is hard to imagine Americans supporting another Bush. After all, this nation still prides itself on being a meritocracy and a dynasty of that magnitude would dwarf anything the Kennedy's broached.

So Cheney stays on despite scandal. He has been the subject of a Supreme Court case on whether he violated the law by not disclosing the names of energy executives who have advised this administration.

Cheney once headed Halliburton, the much-investigated company that won a no-bid contract in Iraq and then allegedly overcharged the government for its work there. Federal officials have also interviewed Cheney in connection with a probe into who leaked a CIA agent's identity to the press, purportedly as retaliation against her husband, a defiant ambassador, who questioned the administration's Iraq policy.

"It would be a mistake to replace him politically because that would be a sign of panic and of uncertainty, and it would also be an insult to the work the guy's done," Republican strategist Glen Bolger said. "But I think that the whole VP thing is way overrated in terms of its impact on a presidential election. If Dan Qualyle didn't hurt George Bush in 1988 then maybe vice presidents don't mean anything at all."

Possibly, that's true. Not since Lyndon Johnson won John F. Kennedy enough votes in the South has a vice president tangibly helped win an election. By such logic, every positive attribute Cheney brings to Mr. Bush remains, yet his one weakness, his inability to transcend Republicans, is negligible.

"You don't get anything out of vice presidents. It's like empty calories," Bolger added. "You might get a sugar boost for a few times. But in the end, the only thing that matters is if voters think Bush disserves reelection."
By David Paul Kuhn