Starting Gate: The Old Potomac Two-Step
3812796When the fictional president tries to get Jack Ryan to get on board with the cover-up of an illegal Central American war in the movie "Clear and Present Danger," the hero's scripted response was predictable. "I'm sorry, Mr. President, I don't dance."
As voters in Maryland, Virginia and Washington, DC head to the polls in today's Potomac primary, the question on the Republican side is whether Mike Huckabee will get with the program or if he will continue to improvise his own steps. As the party hierarchy closes rank behind presumptive nominee John McCain, Huckabee continues to press on, alternately arguing the contest is not yet over and that his presence is helping McCain stay in the news.
With weekend wins in Louisiana and Kansas and a controversial count in Washington State, Huckabee can justify staying in the race. But today's results could force his hand regardless of the outcome.
McCain holds a dominant 705 to 199 delegate count, according to the CBS News estimates. Big wins today, particularly in winner-take-all Virginia, would boost him to within a few hundred of the 1,191 needed to mathematically lock up the nomination. It appears unlikely that McCain would be able to get there for several weeks, perhaps not until April 22 when Pennsylvania votes.
Most Republicans aren't likely to be happy with any kind of contest that drags out that long, preferring instead to get a jump start on the general election.
The hands-off approach to Huckabee's continued competitive presence will likely end today, no matter the outcome. Should McCain sweep the contests, it would put a rather loud exclamation point on his campaign. Huckabee could wait a few weeks and try again in Texas on March 4th but for what purpose? Should Huckabee score an upset win somewhere today, especially Virginia, it could be a real embarrassment to McCain and inflict some serious damage on the all-but-certain nominee.
Either way, Huckabee's argument that he's somehow aiding McCain's task by continuing is likely to wear thin after today. Will he get in line with the Potomac two-step or continue dancing to his own tune?
Is Time Ticking Away? Hillary Clinton's supporters are increasingly talking about the possibility of not scoring another win until possible Texas and Ohio on March 4th. Three weeks is a long time, what will fill the time? Well, lots of organizing and ads for one thing. Both the Clinton and Barack Obama campaigns will begin airing ads in Ohio today and spending in those states could reach as much as $1 million a week, according to the AP. Also probably lots and lots of talk and most likely some sharpening of the rhetoric on the part of the Clinton camp.
In an interview with the Politico yesterday, Clinton once again raised questions about the substance of Obama's candidacy. "You never hear the specifics," she said, about his rhetoric and speeches. "It's all this kind of abstract, general talk about how we all need to get along. I want to get along, and I have gotten along, in the Senate. I will work with Republicans to find common cause whenever I can. But I will also stand my ground because there are fights worth having."
Clinton also questioned Obama's relationship with some of his past campaign contributors. "Senator Obama has some questions to answer about his dealings with one of his biggest contributors, Exelon, "she said. "Apparently he cut some deals behind closed doors to prevent them from full disclosure." And Clinton brought back up the name of indicted Chicago developer Anthony Rezko, whose past support has dogged Obama throughout the campaign. "We still don't have answers about Senator Obama and his dealings with Mr. Rezko," Clinton asserted.
The Independent Ticket? The New York Times over the weekend reported that Nebraska senator Chuck Hagel had confirmed that he had discussed the possibility of running on an independent ticket with New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg. Yesterday, Bloomberg denied that. "I have met him a couple of times," he said of Hagel. "I never talked to him once about being the candidate, and certainly not about who, if I were to run, which I'm not, who you would pick." Hagel chief of staff Mike Buttry also told the AP that Hagel's conversation with the Times had been "overplayed." The Times stands by its report.
Bloomberg is running out of time to begin organizing the signature-gathering process to begin gaining ballot access in states for the fall campaign. It is widely believed that Bloomberg has wanted to wait for both party nominees to emerge before making a decision – something that looks unlikely on the Democratic side. McCain's all-but-certain grasp on the GOP nomination and the rise of Obama may be taking some of the air out of a Bloomberg bid, which would likely be aimed at capturing the middle ground of the political spectrum where both major party candidates are popular.
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