Starting Gate: Lucky 21?
1.) Will Clinton overplay her hand? While not on the ropes, Obama does come into this debate reeling from his self-inflicted comments about small-town Americans, their feelings and their cultural habits. After five days of non-stop discussion about bitterness, there's been little evidence that the flap has cost him so far. But Clinton's camp has continued to hammer on it and it will certainly be a chief topic tonight. The risk for Clinton is going too far in both her criticisms of Obama's perceived elitism and in trying to show her small town bona-fides. Can she avoid the verbal equivalent of downing a shot of Crown Royal?
2.) Obama generally performs much better when he's countering attacks but can he hold the stage on his own without the concert-like atmospherics that accompany his stump speeches? For all the accolades given to his speeches, Obama has a tendency to be flat at times. As the heavy favorite in the race, he can expect a little more scrutiny on him, especially if Clinton is not constantly on the attack. Can he begin the process of "looking and sounding presidential?"
3.) The focus on religion, guns and cultural issues exposes some of the tricky issues Democrats have largely avoided thus far in the campaign. Namely, how does their courting of the kinds of red state, rural voters in Pennsylvania, Indiana, West Virginia and Kentucky square with the overall electorate? Case in point: Both Democrats speak passionately about the need to heal international relations with a more inclusive foreign policy which does not thrust American values onto other countries while at the same time pledging to alter or withhold trade deals unless those countries behave as the candidates insist. Can they square those kinds of circles?
4.) Previous debates have veered wildly from love-ins to attack fests, which will this be? If we're not in the midst of the end-game, we're certainly right at the beginning of the end. That's a potentially perilous position for Democrats who would like to start seeing the party come together for the fall election. Is it an occasion for recognition of that dynamic or is it desperation time for Clinton, one last chance to find a surprise or way to alter the basic metrics of the race?
5.) Are the superdelegates reaching any sort of critical mass in moving toward Obama? Aside from a loss in Pennsylvania next week, about the only thing that is likely to get Clinton out of the race before at least May 6th would be a mass exodus of those superdelegates to Obama's camp. Increasingly we've heard from even Clinton supporters that the race needs to be ended long before the convention. If tonight's debate does not do anything to change the dynamics of the race, will the drip, drip, drip of support for Obama start to increase in volume?
Michelle, Unplugged: Michelle Obama yesterday took umbrage at the charges of "elitism" against her husband, telling an audience in Haveford, Pennsylvania not to be "confused" about where the Obamas come from. "Yeah, I went to Princeton and Harvard," she allowed, "but the lens through which I see the world is the lens I grew up with. I am the product of a middle class upbringing, I grew up on the south side of Chicago, in a working class community. My father was a city worker … There nothing miraculous about how I grew up. I want people to know when they look at me to be clear they can see what an investment in public education can look like." Last night, Michelle Obama appeared on the "Colbert Report," where she was asked how many silver spoons she was born with. "We had four spoons," she responded, "and then my father got a raise at the plant, and we had five spoons."
Pollapalooza: A slew of polls out yesterday indicates that Obama thus far hasn't suffered any slippage in the wake of his "bitter" comments. A Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg series of polls has him trailing narrowly in Pennsylvania, 41 percent to Clinton's 46 percent. In North Carolina, he retains a healthy 47 percent to 34 percent lead and in Indiana, he leads 40 percent to 35 percent. A new Philadelphia News/Franklin & Marshal poll shows Clinton up in PA 46 percent to 40 percent. And a Washington Post/ABC poll has him with a 51 percent to 41 percent lead nationally and indicates that Clinton is now seen as less electable in the general election.
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