Specter Win: Triumph Of Moderates?

Douglas Kiker of the CBS News Political Unit on a race with numerous implications, far beyond Pennsylvania

Specter won by the narrowest of margins -- 50.8 percent to 49.2 percent with 99.3 percent of precincts reporting -- and will face Democratic Rep. Joe Hoeffel in November. Political analysts agree that Hoeffel will have a much tougher time unseating Specter, a proven cross-party vote getter, than he would have had against Toomey, whose ardent conservatism on issues like abortion and taxes could have alienated moderate voters. And, despite spending nearly $10 million to defeat Toomey, there's little doubt that Specter will be able to out-spend Hoeffel by wide margins as the general election approaches.

Despite the narrowness of Specter's victory, relief among the GOP establishment, including the White House, was palpable on Wednesday.

A Specter loss, in many ways, would have been a slap in the president's face in a presidential battleground state that he's visited 27 times since taking office, including a campaign stop in Pittsburgh last week for the then-beleaguered incumbent.

Specter's win accomplished two goals for Bush: Increasing the odds of the GOP maintaining control of the narrowly-divided Senate and increasing his own odds of winning Pennsylvania (a state he lost by just 205,000 votes to Al Gore in 2000) in November. In addition, it showed that the president still has the political juice to help a struggling candidate like Specter get over a primary hump.

The win also was a philosophical one for Republican moderates, a rapidly disappearing breed in Washington. Specter, who votes with the Democrats almost exactly 50 percent of the time, is a throwback to the days when moderates controlled the political parties. Toomey's candidacy was, as much as anything, a protest against Republicans who dare step foot off the GOP's ideological reservation.

Specter's victory, by that measure, shows that even if one bucks the party line from time to time, you can still get the president's help – and win elections – when political reality (control of the U.S. Senate, specifically) is on the line.

Conversely, the narrowness of Specter's win means the above "victories" are tenuous at best. Yes, Bush's candidate won – but at what cost?

Financially, it was an incredibly expensive primary race, with Specter spending $10 million as of April 7, leaving him with about $4.5 million cash-on-hand for the general election race against Hoeffel. While Specter certainly would not have raised as much money if he had no primary opposition, he just as certainly would be entering the general election with far more cash-on-hand than he has today. (For his part, Hoeffel's last FEC report showed him with about $800,000 in the bank.)

Politically, the fact that Specter won by a scant 16,000 votes shows how powerful a force the conservative wing of the party is becoming. Toomey lost – but he did not lose by much. So expensive and razor-thin a margin is sure to intimidate even the most brazen moderate when the Club for Growth comes knocking with a list of complaints, millions of dollars to spend and the threat of a primary challenge as leverage. (The anti-tax group spent $2 million on Toomey's behalf.) The group has made no secret of its displeasure for Senate moderates like George Voinovich of Ohio and Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island. The prospect of having to spend time and money guarding their right flank could make moderation a less appealing political bent.

The Club for Growth's willingness to go against a Republican president and put at risk GOP control of the U.S. Senate was a clear sign that for them, ideology is more important than political reality. The tight-as-a-tube-sock result could have exactly the chilling effect on GOP moderates that Moore and the CFG hoped for – even without a Toomey victory.

At the same time, it's never a good idea to challenge a sitting president – particularly one with whom you agree on your most cherished issue: tax cuts. While the Club for Growth certainly remains a powerhouse advocacy group, the power of the White House and the party establishment trumps anything the CFG brings to the table.

By forcing the president to spend time and the Republican Party to spend money defending Specter's seat, the Club for Growth probably made few friends at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. But, as Harry Truman said: "If you want a friend in Washington, get a dog."

By Douglas Kiker