Smallest Year over Year Change in Core Inflation Since 1957
People have been making the case that runaway inflation is just around the corner as a means of objecting to the Fed's latest plan to try to help the economy, but there's no sign of an inflation problem in the data:
Consumer Price Index Summary, BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent in October on a seasonally adjusted basis... As has frequently been the case in recent months, an increase in the energy index was the major factor in the ... increase. ...
The index for all items less food and energy was unchanged in October, the third month in a row with no change. ... Over the last 12 months, the index for all items less food and energy has risen 0.6 percent, the smallest 12-month increase in the history of the index, which dates to 1957. ...The smallest 12 month increase in the history of the index and people are worried about inflation? This might be a good time to repeat this chart from the SF Fed that I've posted here in the past:
When we look back at this episode, we are going to conclude that policymakers did too little, not too much, and what they did do mostly came too late.
Update: Via Money Supply at the Financial Times:
Record low in US inflation expectations, by Robin Harding: The latest Cleveland Fed estimates of inflation expectations are out:
Expected inflation over every time horizon longer than six years is now at its record low in the period since 1982 that the series covers. Expected inflation over the next ten years is now down to 1.5 per cent.
The Cleveland Fed index is not the last word on inflation expectations but it is certainly reason to think that those QE2 = hyperinflation fears are somewhat misplaced--I doubt the invisible inflation vigilantes will change their tune, but it's hard to find evidence of inflation worries in the data. If anything, markets are reassessing the Fed's ability to stop disinflation.
