Pure Horserace: Laboring For Votes

Nearly all of the Democrats running for president will be on a big stage tonight, literally: They'll be participating in a forum at Chicago's Solider Field that's sponsored by the AFL-CIO, the organized labor umbrella organization that represents 10 million union members — one of the Democratic Party's most loyal constituencies.

But it's also a dwindling constituency. Organized labor membership has been on a consistent decline for decades. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 12 percent of American workers were in a union at the end of 2006, down from 12.5 percent in the previous year. Were that trend to continue, it would appear that organized labor is dying off at a relatively fast pace.

However, in raw numbers, that's 15.4 million people — and they overwhelmingly vote Democratic. In 2004, union members backed John Kerry over President Bush by a 2-to-1 ratio. With Democratic enthusiasm much higher headed into the 2008 race than it was back then, union members are still a great resource for any Democrat. Plus, they're part of organizations that are happy to do much of the political spadework required to get their members to the polls.

That's why, in his video opening statement for tonight's debate, you see Barack Obama promising to join workers on the picket line — as a sitting president. It largely explains why John Edwards has based almost his entire campaign on improving the lives and pocketbooks of middle-class workers. And it's why Hillary Clinton is likely to have a well-formed response tonight when she's asked the inevitable question: What does she think of NAFTA, the free-trade agreement her husband championed to passage while in office, but which is almost universally reviled by labor unions?

Indeed, NAFTA could be the central issue of the night. It appears Edwards is already preparing to put Clinton on the spot about the trade pact. According to the Des Moines Register, Edwards argued before a Cedar Rapids crowd that NAFTA has hurt workers in America by taking away jobs — and in Mexico by allowing them to work in substandard conditions. "I believe in smart and safe trade, just not trade that helps American multinationals and hurts America and American workers," he said.

That said, at tonight's event Edwards is facing something he hasn't had to deal with in previous forums and debates: High expectations. By explicitly courting union members, Edwards has also opened himself up to attacks, particularly concerning his own affluence. Look for Obama and Clinton to try to score points on that front.

All of them are competing for an endorsement from the AFL-CIO, though it could be a long time in coming. Many labor unions joined the Howard Dean bandwagon before it came crashing down in Iowa in 2004. This time, they appear far more picky. Still, first impressions are powerful things in politics, and that's what tonight is all about. — David Miller

Laying The Groundwork? One of Rudy Giuliani's primary pitches to Republicans thus far, outside of his 9/11 leadership aura, of course, has been a tactical one: Giuliani is trying to sell social conservatives leery of his commitment to many of their core concerns on his electability nationwide and his supposed ability to broaden the electoral playing field beyond the "red" states the party has relied on in recent elections.

The former New York City mayor repeated that belief yesterday, telling voters in Iowa that he is best position to defeat what he sees as a likely Democratic ticket of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. Raising the prospect of such an historic ticket, Giuliani is ratcheting up the argument a notch since the last time he brought up the subject.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich — who may yet decide to jump into the GOP race — yesterday also raised the prospect of a Clinton-Obama ticket, telling the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, "The odds are fairly significant that that the left will win next year. My personal bet is that it'll be a Clinton-Obama ticket. I think they have a very high likelihood of winning."

At the moment, a Clinton-Obama ticket would appear formidable and would follow the tradition of a nominee choosing the strongest primary challenger to unify the party going into the fall elections. It also makes some sense for Republican candidates who may benefit from such an expectation to make the most of it. Put aside your heart and look toward the future, the argument goes. Tactical reasons are not generally drivers of primary voting behavior, but it probably doesn't hurt Giuliani to keep bringing up the topic. — Vaughn Ververs

Thought Of The Day: They aren't directly participating in the Republican Straw Poll in Ames on Saturday, but it's likely no coincidence that Giuliani and John McCain have spent some significant time in the state this week. All the candidates gathered in Des Moines last Sunday for the Republican debate, of course, and McCain and Giuliani have lingered along with the rest.

Mitt Romney, who has been energetically organizing for the event, is expected to win going away and would suffer a significant setback should he lose. Giuliani and McCain will remain on the ballot, and to the extent they could peel some support away, it would likely come at Romney's expense. That's worth a little extra time spent in places Cedar Rapids this week. — Vaughn Ververs

Breaking Away? The high-profile bickering between Clinton and Obama of late doesn't seem to have improved the Illinois senator's poll position, at least at a national level. A new USA Today/Gallup shows Clinton opening up a 22-point lead over Obama, 42 percent to 19 percent. That's up from the 16-point lead the New York senator held in the same poll in July. National polls remain largely insignificant at this point, and some surveys in key states have shown upward movement by Obama — But it's getting harder for the Obama campaign to argue that these larger polls aren't saying something about the state of the race. — Vaughn Ververs

Editor's note: Pure Horserace is a daily update of political news as interpreted by the political observers at CBSNews.com. Click here to sign up for the e-mail version.

By David Miller and Vaughn Ververs