Protocol, Statecraft, And Syrian Intent
Written by CBS News' George Baghdadi, reporting from Paris.
Today's summit of Mediterranean leaders in France would definitely provide no occasion for private talks - or even a public handshake between the Syrian President and the Israeli Prime Minister - but both leaders would certainly grab hold of the display, as peace negotiations between the long-time foe countries may become more than a cross-reference in the history of the Middle East, analysts say.
Some 43 heads of state and government will attend the launch of a French-inspired Union for the Mediterranean summit intended to revitalize cooperation between the European Union and Mediterranean countries, and Bashar Al-Assad and Ehud Olmert will make history for sitting at the same round table (though well apart - Olmert will sit between the Italian and Irish officials; Assad between the Swedish and Tunisian).
Paris-based diplomats told CBS that the Syrians were so strict for knowing every detail of the protocol measures, insisting furthermore that both leaders would enter the room from different doors to prevent any "accidental encounter."
"Syrians believe that every incident, no matter how minor, may be subject to worldwide public examination. Assad was unlikely to make any conciliatory sign, not even eye contact with Olmert," one diplomat said, asking not to be named for the sensitivity of the issue.
"Let's put in mind that there are two aspects to any move: One at the negotiating table, of course, and the other is at home," he added.
When theories popped up after the handshake between Assad and then-Israeli president Moshe Katzav at the funeral of Pope John Paul II in 2005 in Rome, the Syrian government hurried to clarify that the gesture was nothing but "a formality."
But Assad, who did not retaliate for Israel's bombing last September of a Syrian desert facility (which the CIA alleged was a nascent nuclear reactor, amid denials by Damascus), signaled his country was ready for peace.
After eight years of stalemate and tension, the two countries announced in May that they had launched a bid to end one of the region's longest-running disputes through Turkish mediation. Three sets of indirect talks had already gained progress, according to both sides.
Assad, though, did not expect direct negotiations for the next six months until U.S. President George W. Bush is out of office, since any success would need a powerful intermediary, which Assad believes can only be the U.S.
"The current administration (of President George W. Bush) is not interested in the peace process," he told reporters on Saturday at his Paris meeting with French President Nicolas Sarkozy, urging France (probably a suitable interim solution) to play a role in the dispute. The French leader welcomed the notion and declared he would visit Damascus in September.
The Syrians suggest that by talking with Israel now, they could at least obtain an agreed outline of a peace treaty, even if its implementation would have to wait, according to Middle East analysts. Such an agreement in principle would give the next American administration a reason to change its policy toward Syria and end sanctions against it.
The Americans have been reluctant to open up to Damascus until it makes a firm commitment to disengage from Tehran, as well as from anti-Israel Palestinian and Lebanese groups declared "terrorists organizations" by Washington.
Many analysts, however, say the moment Syria decided to publicize the negotiations, it began the process of distancing itself from Iran, as it would have minimal need for an alliance with Tehran - although Syrian and Iranian officials readily deny their relationship is jeopardized by the prospect of a Syria-Israel deal.
"It is beyond doubt that Syria is a key player in regional politics. Washington still wants to pretend that it is not. The White House is determined to stick to its ideologically driven policies until the bitter end, sacrificing U.S. soldiers in Iraq and business investment in Syria. And for the sake of what? Stopping peace between Syria and Israel?" said Middle East expert Joshua Landis, Director of the Center for Peace Studies at the University of Oklahoma.
Both countries negotiated for several years in the 1990s but failed to reach agreement over the Golan Heights, occupied since the 1967 war, though several breakthroughs were made on the trickiest issues, including security, mutual recognition and water.
"As long as there will be a fourth round of talks at the end of this month, then this is a significant indication that further progress is on the way," said Mohammed Ali, a professor at Damascus University.
¨Syria indeed means business here, not only handshakes for camera shows," he added.