Powell Bowing Out At Pivotal Point

By David Paul Kuhn, CBSNews.com chief political writer

But Powell's resignation should have little impact on international diplomacy, say experts. Since the war in Iraq began, Powell has been seen as a principal without the power to act as President Bush's proxy.

"There was a sense he was not effective, not because of his own propensity, but because he was not seen as having the full support of the president," said Shibley Telhami, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and Anwar Sadat Professor of Peace and Development at the University of Maryland.

"I don't think his resignation will give a signal there is a shift in foreign policy," Telhami continued. "People are looking directly at the president."

Powell joins five other cabinet level officials who have resigned since President Bush won reelection. The shakeup of Mr. Bush's second-term cabinet is expected to continue, leaving about half of the 15 positions newly-appointed.

Along with Powell's resignation, those of Agriculture Secretary Ann Veneman, Education Secretary Rod Paige and Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham were also made public Monday. In addition, two top officials running the CIA's clandestine operations also stepped down Monday.

The resignations of Commerce Secretary Don Evans and Attorney General John Ashcroft were announced last week. Mr. Bush promptly nominated White House counsel Alberto Gonzales as Ashcroft's successor, setting off speculation that the president hopes to bolster Gonzales' credentials as a viable Supreme Court nominee in the future.

Though cabinet level turnover is the norm of any second-term administration, President Bush's executive house cleaning has been especially rapid. But by all accounts, the six resignations so far were of the cabinet members own volition.

"There's always turnover because people get burned out after four years, but I think there is a little more going on here," said political analyst Norm Ornstein of the American Enterprise Institute.

"This has been an administration where policy making was centered through the White House," Ornstein said. "I would guess that for some of these Cabinet members you get burned out because there is still a heavy workload, but you are not able to operate on the big or middle level issues with any degree of serious freedom."

For Powell, few expected him to go two terms.

"I have always indicated to (Bush) that I thought I would serve for one term," Powell, 67, told reporters Monday.

Though he consistently said he served at the "pleasure of the president," tension between Powell, a moderate, and Bush administration hawks was one of the worst kept secrets in Washington. But the dirty laundry of Powell's dismay with Mr. Bush's hawkish inner circle – including Vice President Dick Cheney, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld and National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice – was never aired publicly.

On the contrary, it was Powell who went before the United Nations in February 2003 arguing that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction.

Powell's public position placed him center stage in the administration argument that Hussein posed an imminent threat to the United States. With no weapons of mass destruction found, Powell's international credibility was compromised.

Privately, the summer prior to the invasion, Powell warned the president that attacking Iraq would make the United States responsible for a broken state and its people, according to Bob Woodward's most recent book "Plan of Attack." Woodward reported that Powell referred to this as the Pottery Barn rule: You break it, you own it.

It remains unclear whether Powell's deputy will follow. As Ornstein put it, Deputy Secretary Of State Richard Armitage is "the glue that kept the foreign policy team together."

Some suspected Powell would stay on for several more months to chart the path to elections in Iraq and a revitalized Middle East peace process. President Bush has said the death of Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat last week may offer new openings for peace in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

The only issue on people's minds, according to Telhami, is whether Mr. Bush will make the Arab-Israeli issue a priority in American foreign policy.

"And I mean a priority, in the same way (Bush) makes the war a priority in American foreign policy," Telhami said. "That's what most people in Europe and the Middle East would like to see, and I don't think that the continuation of Secretary Powell would have given people a signal that there was as shift in policy."

The boy from the Bronx and son of Jamaican immigrants, capped a nearly four-decade-long career in public service as secretary of state. He also served as chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff under President George H.W. Bush.

CBS News learned Monday night that President Bush has asked Rice to be Powell's successor.

If Rice is confirmed, and by all accounts she will be, she inherits other problems outside of Iraq and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The situation in Afghanistan is improving, though tenuously. The nuclear programs of Iran and North Korea remain the tinderboxes of world affairs.

But it is unclear how much power Mr. Bush will vest in the new secretary of state. Rice's selection likely represents no significant shift in U.S. foreign policy. Though her close relationship with the president may bridge perceived gaps between the state department and the White House.

"I don't think it's possible, but if he were to bring Jim Baker in and make him secretary of state that would be a remarkable signal because people think of him as a realist on foreign policy and people think somebody like Baker would never take that position unless they were empowered," Telhami said. "If, on the other hand, he is appointing Condi Rice, then you can imagine it is going to be business as usual."