Polls Show Netanyahu Slipping

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bid for re-election is in trouble, according to new polls.

As Monday's election approaches, Netanyahu's main challenger, Labor leader Ehud Barak, has been painting Netanyahu as incompetent breaker of promises.

Netanyahu's embrace of Jewish fundamentalists frightens many Israelis who fear too much looking back to the Jewish past will destroy the state's future.

According to a Maariv-Gallup poll of 1,100 Israelis taken on Thursday night, Barak, was ahead by 13 percentage points, more than in any previous survey. It gave 48.5 percent for Barak and 35.5 for Netanyahu, putting Barak within a few thousand votes of outright victory on Monday if Azmi Bishara, the first Israeli Arab to run for the country's highest office, were to withdraw in his favor.

For the first time in Israel's history, security doesn't seem to be the central issue in a national election, reports CBS News Correspondent Richard Roth. Most Israelis are reconciled with giving up land for peace -- and want to get it over with.

They are restless about an increasingly bitter culture clash between synagogue and state -- blaming Netanyahu, according to the polls, for giving too much power to a religious right wing that doesn't represent the majority of modern Israelis. "This election is an election that comes down to a referendum on what kind of a country this is," said Zeev Chafetz, a columnist for The Jerusalem Report. "The primary issue is us, for us."

For many Palestinians, Barak is only the lesser of two evils, analysts say.

For Palestinian President Yasser Arafat, a vote by Israelis to return Netanyahu to power would be a political nightmare, say Palestinian officials.

Hassan Asfour, minister of state for peace negotiations, said a Netanyahu victory could "increase fanaticism in Israel, and that could lead to a series of crises and possibly an explosion."

In the first round, Arab voters -- who increasingly define themselves as Palestinians -- are expected to give a large majority of their votes to Barak. This despite the fact he has undermined Netanyahu's claim to be the only one tough enough to stand up to the Arabs, glorifying his military career in campaign ads.

Barak is a former army chief and commando who has led assassination raids against leading Palestinian guerrillas.

Arabs, who make up 11 percent of Israel's 4.3 million voters, pack almost as much punch as the Russian immigrants and the ultra-Orthodox Jews, who have been kingmakers in past elections.

The key question is how many Arab voters will be motivated to show up for a second round when Arab parties will not be contesting the race. A low turnout could hurt Barak's chances, and Arab politicians say Barak will have to come out strong for social equality and other Arab issues to rally Arab support.

Palestinian officials have forged personal friendships with Labor leaders over the years, but Barak, wh has promised to instill trust and momentum into the Middle East peace process, was not among them. "(Barak) never says equality. He won't say it. Somebody must say it," said Bishara, a chain-smoking philosophy professor.

Bishara, 42, a critic of Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat who reportedly urged him to drop his candidacy, hopes to garner about a third of the Arab vote if he stays in the race. Arab insiders predict he will drop out at the last minute to give Barak a better chance to win in one round.

Arabs hold 12 of the 120 seats in the Knesset, but one reason they are not more influential is that Arab voters are deeply divided on tactics as well as ideology, with many casting ballots for Jewish candidates.

The Palestinian Authority, in charge of self-rule areas in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, has been walking a tightrope during the Israeli election campaign, aware that the right-wing Netanyahu could use any misstep for political gain.

Reading the Israeli political map, and under international pressure, Arafat did not carry out his pledge to declare a Palestinian state on May 4, the date a five-year negotiating period expired for forging a permanent peace accord with Israel.

But the Palestinians reserved the option to proclaim independence should Netanyahu, win a surprise victory. "There is an overwhelming feeling of disgust with Netanyahu and a desire not to see him back in power ever again," said Palestinian Minister of Parliamentary Affairs Nabil Amr. "But we are also very wary of Barak and are not under the illusion that life will be easy with him as prime minister," he added.

Netanyahu, who reluctantly inherited 1993 Israeli-PLO interim peace deals from the Labor-led government, has signed two interim accords with Arafat since taking office in 1996.

Under the agreements, Israel handed over part of the town of Hebron to Palestinian rule in 1997 and late last year carried out the first of three pullbacks from the West Bank agreed upon under the U.S.-brokered Wye River accord.

But citing alleged Palestinian violations, Netanyahu suspended the Wye agreement until he was satisfied his key condition of "mutuality" was being met. The deal remains on ice.

Netanyahu has a reputation for being able to wiggle out of the tightest spot, but he also has a reputation as an extremist and bungler. How the elections turn out for him depends largely on which of his reputations he lives up to now.