Oscar Expectations

Viewers who tune into the Academy Awards ceremony Sunday night will watch the end of an Oscar race that has narrowed considerably.

Early Show Anchor Bryant Gumbel spoke to gossip columnist Mitchell Fink of the New York Daily News about all the anticipation and pre-Oscar parties. Fink was heading out to L.A. Thursday to start covering one of the biggest showbiz stories of the year.

The Oscar parties, he explains, are about establishing a presence on Oscar weekend. But his job is to keep an eye on the stars as well. Fink says he'll be keeping close tabs on Annette Bening, who is due to have a baby very soon.

"The world wants to know: Is she going to have this baby during the Oscars?" Fink told Gumbel. "I'm sure they have gone to elaborate plans. It's her fourth child. She is being very coy on when the due date is. I would think, if they're downtown in Los Angeles, they have to have some plan in motion to get her to the hospital, which I would think is on the west side."

Who Watches The Oscars? The Academy claims to have billions of viewers in hundreds of countries. The truth is somewhat different..

Another Oscar story that's brewing is the question of whether Universal dropped the ball on Denzel Washington's Oscar chances.

"He's been hurt by the backlash against The Hurricane," explains Fink. "It was clear that people were…writing stories that The Hurricane, as it was presented on film, was not accurate. What Universal didn't do was counter that, saying, 'Well, this is a great film regardless.' I think Denzel's chances for best actor are hurt as a result."

Fink is predicting a sweep by American Beauty.

"Number one, American Beauty was a terriic film," he says. But other factors include:

• The Directors Guild of America award went to Beauty director Sam Mendes.
• Alan Ball will almost certainly win for original screenplay.
• Lead actor Kevin Spacey's chances have improved because of Hurricane backlash.
• Lead actress Bening has an edge because of her pregnancy and the fact that she is married to Warren Beatty, who is Hollywood royalty.
• And Fink says he thinks that because DreamWorks lost to Miramax last year, when Saving Private Ryan lost to Shakespeare in Love, Hollywood wants to see DreamWorks catapulted to the top of the heap.

Fink also said the smart money is on Michael Caine (The Cider House Rules) to win as supporting actor and for Angelina Jolie (Girl, Interrupted) as supporting actress. She is the daughter of Jon Voight, and Fink said he thinks Hollywood would like to "anoint" her.

And, last but not least, there is the Oscar fashion story, which Fink said is going to be a bigger deal than ever this year, mostly because of the dress Jennifer Lopez wore to the Grammy Awards ceremony. (It resembled a flimsy long scarf taped to her body.)

"You can see she set the bar higher or lower," commented Fink. "But clearly she threw down the gauntlet, and you're going see chilly women at the Oscars."