Odds Favor GOP In Senate Races
If Democrats are going to regain control of the Senate today, they need to gain two seats to be assured of a 51-vote majority. And their work is cut out for them.
Of the 34 Senate races being decided this Election Day, the parties are nearly certain to swap two of them. Democrats are expected to win an open seat in Illinois, while Republicans take one in Georgia -- which is one of five Southern states where Democratic Senate veterans are retiring.
Among the eight races that are the most competitive, five of the Senate seats are currently held by Democrats, and three belong to Republicans. Democrats would have to win seven of them to gain a majority. And Minority Leader Tom Daschle, one of the country's most high-profile Democrats, is in the fight of his life.
Many of the Senate races are just as tight as the presidential race, but the dynamics of the races are very different.
Democrats running for the Senate in Republican-leaning states want to be more like President Bush clearing brush in Crawford, Texas, than John Kerry windsurfing off Nantucket Island, Mass.
Democratic chances of regaining control of the Senate may depend on candidates who run away from their party platform and their presidential contender.
"We've got eight or nine really competitive races and just about all are in strong Bush states," said Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. "Democrats have some bad luck here."
Republicans control the Senate 51-48 with one Democratic-leaning independent, but the minority party's gap becomes wider on an election map where most close races are in states likely to go for Mr. Bush.
"We've got six races out there at least that there is no clear favorite," CBS News Early Show contributor Craig Crawford said. "And they lean Republican."
"So the assumption is Republicans would keep — but if the turnout is big for Democrats, that could change."
Of the eight states with the most competitive Senate races (plus Louisiana which has a runoff system), Democratic challenger Kerry is seriously contesting only Florida and Colorado. He's effectively conceding Kentucky, North Carolina, South Carolina, Louisiana, Oklahoma, South Dakota and Alaska. Democrats have to win seven of those nine seats to control the Senate.
There could be enough close races among the 34 taking place to leave control in doubt on election night — and possibly until Dec. 4, when Louisiana would have a runoff if no candidate receives more than 50 percent of the vote Tuesday.
The need to persuade Bush voters in conservative states to split their tickets has led to strong pledges of independence — and support of some Republican positions — by several Democratic candidates.
Republicans have countered with ads showing their Democratic opponents pictured with liberals like Sens. Ted Kennedy, Hillary Rodham Clinton and Daschle.
In Alaska, Knowles has to overcome a huge Republican majority that gave Bush a 31 percent margin in 2000. He presents himself as a middle-of-the road Democrat. Murkowski has turned more to the right.
"When she was in the legislature, she was moderate," said Carl Shepro, a political science professor at the University of +Alaska+. "She supported a woman's right to choose. Now she has come out on the conservative side."
Nepotism remains a big issue. Many voters are angry that she was appointed by her father, Gov. Frank Murkowski, to fill his unexpired Senate term.
The closeness of DeMint-Tenenbaum race in South Carolina "is astonishing because it's a very Republican state," said Laura Woliver, professor of political science and women's studies at the University of South Carolina.
Tenenbaum has been helped by remarks from DeMint, including that gays and unwed, pregnant women are unfit to be public school teachers.
Carson, the Democratic candidate in Oklahoma, is trying to win in a state that gave Mr. Bush a 22-point margin over Al Gore. He wears cowboy boots and jeans and drives a beat-up pickup truck. Like Tenenbaum, he's been helped by his opponent's strident comments.
Coburn, an obstetrician, has said he favors the death penalty for abortionists, called state legislators "a bunch of crapheads" and referred to "rampant lesbianism" in some Oklahoma schools.
"Coburn's stock in trade is he was forthright, he said what he thought and was earnest," said Dr. Keith Gaddie, a University of Oklahoma political science professor. "Democrats have to find a way to run as far to the right as possible while holding on to the Democratic base."
In Colorado, Republican Peter Coors, on leave as chief executive of Coors Brewing Co., has been criticized by some conservatives because his company's health plan covered abortions. He pledged to end the coverage but refused to answer a reporter's question about whether it has been dropped.
While Coors has opposed gay marriage, his company also provides benefits for same-sex partners.
"He's had to walk a tightrope," said University of Colorado political science professor Ken Bickers.
In other key races: