N.Y. Senate Debate Fallout

The day after Hillary Clinton and Rick Lazio's first debate, opinions were split in New York as to which would-be senator did better.

New York's major newspapers all ran the same picture on the cover of the tabloids and above the fold of the broadsheets: Republican Lazio crossing the floor to confront Democrat Clinton with a no-soft money pledge in his hand, which Clinton declined to sign.

"IN HER FACE" cried the Daily News. Reporting and punditry were heavy on the boxing metaphors: "Gloves Come Off in the First Round" was the headline in the Albany Times Union. In the Buffalo News, the candidates were "Taking Their Shots."

It wasn't for nothing that scribes depicted the pols as raging bulls.

Clinton beat up on her rival on Wednesday night by identifying him as "deputy whip to Newt Gingrich" and by trying to create the impression that the moderate Lazio had never demonstrated independence from his party's conservative leadership. The Long Island congressman hit back, implying the first lady is a carpetbagger who cannot be trusted.

Independent New York pollster Mickey Blum, who measured the debate reactions of 274 registered New York voters for WCBS-TV and the Daily News, said Clinton won over a "good chunk" of polled viewers who were uncommitted before the debate. Blum said the newly converted thought Clinton addressed the issues more. The poll gave Clinton a 49-36 percent edge over Lazio among 274 people who were interviwed around the state.

When respondents to the Blum & Weprin poll were asked if the debate made them feel more or less favorably toward each candidate, the lesser known Lazio's numbers moved a lot more, in both directions.

29 percent felt more favorably toward Clinton afterwards, and 13 percent less favorably. With Lazio, 35 percent came away with a higher opinion of the local boy, and 30 percent said yuck.

"More people knew [Clinton] and really already had an opinion of her," said Blum. With Lazio, viewers "didn't know him as well and didn't have an opinion."

Blum cautioned that she gauged reaction immediately after the debate and "after the media spin, people might have a whole different view."

For the still-undecided, New York University's Mitchell Moss thinks the "Thrilla in … Buffalo" raises interest in the next debate which will take place October 8 in New York City.

He predicts "undecided voters are going to be more attentive" thanks to Wednesday night's fireworks.

"We now know Lazio's spontaneous and he's got an instinct for the jugular," said Moss, an expert on New York politics. "He didn't beat [former Congressman] Tom Downey because he's good-looking, but because he knows how to wield a knife."

Clinton, said Moss, "showed she's not going to unravel" in the face of attack, or when reminded (again) that her husband humiliated hr with his affairs.

Moss thinks the well-briefed Clinton "showed she knows more about upstate New York than he does. She's absorbed more information about upstate in one year than [Lazio] has in 42 years."

Debate panelist Bob McCarthy of the Buffalo News, who questioned the candidates about particular upstate economic issues, is not so convinced of either candidate's depth on that region's issues.

McCarthy said "I really didn't get an answer" from Clinton to his question about whether she would be willing to disagree with some of her own union supporters to bring down local taxes.

McCarthy "appreciates the honesty" of Lazio's see-no-evil answer to another question. "He continues to believe there's no particular problem with the upstate economy."

Moss said that in the next debate, "We'll stop hearing about Newt Gingrich and start hearing about Gore and Bush." Hillary's "best hope" is to "manacle" Lazio to GOP presidential candidate George W. Bush, now being blown out of the water by Al Gore in New York according to the latest statewide polls.

The Lazio camp sees it coming. Lazio spokesman Mike Marr said Clinton is "doing everything she can to nationalize this election," but Republicans are "determined to keep this race focused on the two candidates."

"In my view," said American University presidential scholar Alan Lichtman, "Lazio has got to take this election from her. If it's a tie, it strongly favors Hillary because Al Gore is going to win that state big."

Remembering 1964, Lichtman said Hillary will run "well behind Gore, like Bobby Kennedy ran well behind Lyndon Johnson" in New York, when they ran for senator and president respectively. Still, Kennedy won comfortably. "If Gore wins hugely, she'll win solidly."

Lichtman added Lazio faces a "huge job" to create enough ticket-splitters to win. And he calls the "conventional wisdom" that voters frequently split their ticket by voting one party for president and another for their state representatives "abject nonsense." In 1996, Lichtman said, 85 percent of voters voted the party line up and down the ballot.

Lazio needs to "elevate his game," said Lichtman. In the Buffalo debate, "he only elevated the decibel level."

Asked if Lazio's "in your face" soft money challenge was over the top, Moss said throw away the rule book: "I don't think anything's over the top in this race. There is no top. There is nothing that will not be accepted."