Not Too Soon To Think Campaign '08
By Steve Chaggaris of the CBS News Washington bureau.
It may be 2 years, 7 months, and 26 days until the next presidential election but that's not stopping a half a dozen potential Republican candidates from wooing potential voters in Tennessee this weekend.
About 1,800 Republicans from 26 states, along with a couple of hundred members of the press, are descending on Memphis for the Southern Republican Leadership Conference where those six possible presidential wannabes will deliver 15-minute speeches and participate in a straw poll vote - giving political observers a early sense of the how 2008 Republican race will look.
Scheduled to speak at the conference are Virginia Sen. George Allen, Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback, Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist of Tennessee, Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, Arizona Sen. John McCain and Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.
Several other potential candidates - such as former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, New York Gov. George Pataki and Nebraska Sen. Chuck Hagel - were invited but chose not to attend.
All of this begs the question: Why, only 16 months after the last presidential election, is so much attention being paid to this event? Because it's the first time that a large group of prospective candidates will sashay on the presidential catwalk in front of their party's faithful.
Vanderbilt University political science professor John Geer adds that it also gives the political punditry an opportunity to gauge the upcoming presidential race.
"The 'inside the beltway' gang is looking for various kinds of signals about who's doing well and who's not doing well," Geer said.
For instance, at the 1998 Southern Republican Leadership Conference, then-Gov. George W. Bush won the straw poll without even attending the event, solidifying the conventional wisdom that he was the guy to beat in 2000.
But before anyone reads too much into the straw poll results, keep in mind that the gutters of political history are strewn with former "contenders," such as those who came in second and third to Bush in that 1998 poll: publisher Steve Forbes and former Vice President Dan Quayle.
The straw polls serve another purpose, however, Geer adds: to help the top candidates "make their case" to campaign donors that their potential candidacies are viable.
And the donors will be more important than ever as 2008 promises to be the most expensive presidential campaign in history.
Just look at the 2004 Democratic primary where the top six candidates combined to raise almost $200 million by the time John Kerry clinched the nomination in March and it's not hard to imagine that 2008 will be a record-setter.
"This will shatter all records," said Larry Noble, executive director of the Center for Responsive Politics, a campaign finance watchdog group. One explanation? "You don't have an incumbent" running in either primary in 2008, Noble added.
That's precisely another reason why all political eyes are on this weekend's proceedings. Both the Democratic and Republican nomination fights will be totally wide open - an anomaly in recent political history - with a dozen potential candidates from each party and everyone is looking for every possible way to set themselves apart.
Consider that it's the first time since 1952 that a sitting president or vice president will not be on the ballot for the general election.
Even more, barring an out-of-the-blue Dick Cheney candidacy, it's the first time since 1928 that a sitting president or vice president won't be seeking their party's nomination (Democratic Vice President Alben Barkley did try to get his party's nod in 1952 but due to fears that the 74-year-old was too old for the job, the Dems nominated Illinois Gov. Adlai Stevenson).
Ultimately, all of the bells and whistles and blathering pundits this weekend in Memphis still doesn't change the fact that it's that small slice of America - the political world - that's going to be the only group paying much attention this early in the process.
As Vanderbilt political science professor Geer put it, the political junkies who can't wait for '08 "are just looking for news because the presidency is the big prize."
Eyes On The Prize
Here's a quick look at the six potential Republican presidential candidates who'll be speaking at this weekend's Southern Republican Leadership Convention:
For the record, here are some Memphis absentees - potential candidates who were invited but are skipping the conference:
By Steve Chaggaris