More Officials Resign In Turkey

Turkey's respected foreign and economy ministers resigned Thursday, leaving the government of Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit little chance of survival and making early elections a near certainty.

Hours after foreign minister Ismail Cem resigned, Kemal Dervis, the architect of Turkey's economic recovery program, announced he was doing the same, bringing to eight the number of ministers who have quit the government. Thirty-eight legislators have resigned from Ecevit's party this week.

The government has been largely paralyzed since the 77-year-old Ecevit fell ill in May. Since then, he either has been hospitalized or at home recuperating.

Turkey now faces the probability of unwanted early elections this fall.

Dervis' departure raises concerns over Turkey's attempts to repair its fragile economy. Dervis announced his resignation minutes after financial markets closed Thursday, and refused attempts by President Ahmet Necdet Sezer to convince him to stay, private CNN-Turk reported.

Dervis, a former top World Bank official in Washington who became economy minister last year, has won public praise for his frank appraisal of Turkey's dire economic problems and his rescue plans.

The political crisis comes as the United States is considering military action against Turkey's neighbor, Iraq. American officials are wary of any instability in Turkey, a key U.S. ally that would be an ideal base for such an attack.

Cem said in a written statement that he resigned and would give his reasoning in a news conference Friday.

Turkish media have been speculating that Cem could join a new political party led by former Deputy Premier Husamettin Ozkan, who resigned on Monday.

One of the most prominent figures in Ecevit's party, Cem has served as foreign minister under three different governments since 1997. He has played a key role in developing Turkey's ties with the European Union and improving relations with archrival Greece.

Many analysts expect Cem, Ozkan and Kemal Dervis to form a new political movement aimed at speeding Turkey's path to European Union membership. Divisions within the government over reforms the EU is demanding, like abolishing the death penalty and allowing more rights to minority Kurds, have helped bring the government to the brink of collapse.

Devlet Bahceli, the nationalist leader and deputy premier and a strong opponent of EU reforms, called Sunday for early elections to break the deadlock. On Wednesday, nationalists said they had assembled the 110 lawmakers' signatures needed to recall parliament from its summer recess to vote for a November poll.

Ecevit admitted that early elections might be inevitable. But his top aide said Wednesday Ecevit's party opposed the balloting for fear that it could destabilize the government's economic reform program.

"We think it's necessary for the government to continue until 2004 for the sake of our national interests," said the new deputy premier, Sukru Sina Gurel. "If the elections take place earlier because our coalition partners think differently then so be it."

The desertion of 38 lawmakers from Ecevit's party this week has altered the coalition's balance, leaving the nationalists as the largest party. The coalition leaders met Wednesday, but failed to agree on an election date or action on the EU reforms.

The junior coalition partner, the pro-business Motherland Party, is unhappy at nationalist opposition to EU reforms. It wants the reforms passed before elections, possibly by a new government which would exclude the nationalists, or, if that is not possible, a snap poll in September, leaving time to pass the reforms before an EU summit in December that could decide to open membership talks with Turkey.

But the nationalists will likely do what they can to block the reforms, opening the way for an election that would be "a referendum on the EU," according to Tolga Ediz, an economist with Lehman Brothers in London.

The fragile economy, recovering from a crisis that saw it shrink 9.4 percent last year amid mass layoffs, is another reason why many are hoping that the uncertainty will end soon.

"If the Cem-Ozkan-Dervis trio could take to the political stage with a new party, a new source of hope could be born, and politics could be opened up," wrote Hasan Cemal in the Milliyet newspaper.

Cem, who as foreign minister has worked to improve ties with neighbor Greece and has good relations with his EU counterparts, is seen as the likeliest leader of the new movement.

However, financial markets are fragile amid fears that elections would derail the government's International Monetary Fund-backed recovery plan.

Since Ecevit was first hospitalized in May, the lira has lost almost 20 percent of its value in dollar terms and the stock market is down a similar amount. Markets were waiting for a signal from Dervis on his political future.