Legg Mason Manager Sees End of Panic, Start of Value
Bill Miller famously outperformed the S&P 500 for the first 15 years he managed Legg Mason's Value Fund. Almost as famously, he has underperformed that benchmark for the last two years. Now he's sticking his neck out and saying the worst is likely over in the financial sector.
For planning purposes, here is my forecast: I think we will do better from here on, and that by far the worst is behind us. I think the credit panic ended with the collapse of Bear Stearns, and credit spreads are already much improved since then. If spreads continue to come in, the write-offs at the big financials will end, and we may even have some write-ups in the second half instead of write-downs.Write-ups? Now that would be refreshingly new. Miller argues that valuations are attractive, and that once momentum begins to fade from the market, value investors can start scavenging. He said some housing and financial stocks have hit bottom, suggesting many believe they have seen the worst.
There is one factor that could undo this optimism, and it's commodity prices. If commodities break, or even just stop their relentless rise, equity markets should do well. If they continue to move steadily higher, they have the potential to destabilize the global economy.No one wants that dire scenario. But despite the past two years underperfromance of his fund, it's interesting to see a big name coming out and arguing that the bottom is near for financial companies. Not quite persuasive, but interesting.