Large Majority Favors 60 MPG Requirement; Get Yer Grain of Salt Here
Here's an
other poll that shows people think "green" but act "red," if that's the opposite of green. The Union of Concerned Scientists today said a poll showed an overwhelming majority of respondents support hiking the federal gas mileage requirement to 60 mpg in 2025.
That 60 mpg is a nice, round number, but how likely is that? As my BNET colleague Jim Motavalli said in a recent post, "not on this planet." He was responding to another poll that showed more than half of the respondents have "an interest in" buying an alternate-fuel vehicle in the next year.
The same principle applies: People responding to polls are prone to say what they think other people want to hear. Better gas mileage is inherently good. If somebody asks whether 60 mpg is a good idea, sure, why not? It makes me think if the poll had asked about 90 mpg or 100 mpg, people would have said the same thing. Besides the Union of Concerned Scientists, the poll was sponsored by the Natural Resources Defense Council, the Sierra Club and Environment America.
Meanwhile, what people actually buy is another story. According to AutoData, sales of hybrid cars were down 37 percent in August to 20,586, representing only 2.1 percent of all car sales. Sales of the most popular hybrid, the Toyota (TM) Prius, were down 38 percent for the month.
For 2010 through August, sales of all hybrid cars were down 8 percent to 150,060, representing a 2 percent share of car sales. Sales of large pickups? Up 16 percent year to date to 854,258, AutoData said.
To be fair, the Union of Concerned Scientists poll did include some opposing views. For instance, one question asked which arguments were more "convincing," including a statement to the effect that higher mileage requirements would mean "lighter, unsafe" cars on the road. That's an argument auto industry partisans have been known to make.
The poll also asked people if they would be willing to pay extra for a 60-mpg car, anticipating another counter-argument that auto industry executives often make. Respondents said they would.
Overall, almost 75 percent of respondents said they favored the federal government raising the fuel economy standard to 60 mpg. The poll didn't say this, but for the record that's a cool 69 percent higher than the present Corporate Average Fuel Economy standard, which requires car companies to average 35.5 mpg by 2016. In turn, that's about 40 percent higher than what cars are achieving today.
According to the U.S. Department of Energy, the Prius is the nation's highest-mileage car, with an EPA estimate of 51 mpg in city driving. For the Prius to achieve 60 mpg would be a huge achievement.
But the federal gas mileage standard is a mandatory average. It's one thing, and not an easy thing, to come up with one car that gets 60 mpg. It's a lot harder to come up with a whole fleet that averages 60 mpg.
It's a nice concept. Personally, I particularly like the national security argument, in favor of less dependence on foreign oil, from countries that don't wish us well.
But a 60 mpg fleet is highly unlikely, unless people start having smaller families, quit carrying lots of stuff around, and quit expecting fast zero-to-60 mph accelerations. In addition, gas will need to go back above $4 per gallon and stay there. It would also help if somebody invented materials that are lighter and more affordable and also crashworthy.
All in all, it's pretty hard even to imagine a fleet of cars and trucks that on average could get 60 mpg. At least, not on this planet.
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Photo: U.S. Department of Energy