John Ensign's resignation gives GOP a boost in critical Nevada Senate race
As Democrats seek to hold onto their slim majority in the Senate, they're aiming to win some currently Republican-held Senate seats in 2012. With scandal-plagued Republican Sen. John Ensign set to retire, his Nevada Senate seat seemed to be the best opportunity for Democrats. Now that Ensign's resigning early, however, the dynamics of the race could change.
Ensign is resigning his seat today, and Republican Gov. Brian Sandoval is likely to appoint Republican Rep. Dean Heller as Ensign's replacement. Heller, a three-term congressman, was already in the race to replace Ensign. He's expected to face off against Democratic Rep. Shelley Berkley. Now, Heller's likely to get 18 months to try out the job.
"If Dean Heller is appointed, it will help him tremendously," Heidi Smith, the GOP national committeewoman in Northern Nevada, told the Las Vegas Review-Journal.
The appointment would give Heller a taste of the advantages of incumbency, including increased name recognition; a chance to prove himself to voters; and a sturdier rapport with his potential Senate colleagues, as well as lobbyists and other Capitol Hill denizens.
The Washington Post points out that nine of the last 10 appointees who ran in the next election won. Looking at a longer-term picture, however, the New York Times points out that appointed senators have typically only won re-election about half of the time, far below the high re-election rate that incumbents enjoy.
Regardless of whether Heller's likely appointment will give him an advantage, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee told the Review-Journal that race remains a priority for Democrats. DSCC executive director Guy Cecil told the paper that Nevadans will have a "very clear choice for Nevadans between an uncompromising extremist like Dean Heller ... and Shelley Berkley, a true fighter for Nevada's economy and middle class,"
The race will indeed represent a clear choice between the dueling agendas of the Republican and Democratic parties.
The DSCC is already launching a campaign against Heller and a handful of other vulnerable Republican representatives who are running or considering for the Senate, challenging them on the issue of Medicare. Heller voted to pass the controversial 2012 GOP budget plan, penned by Rep. Paul Ryan (Wis.), that would turn Medicare into a voucher system.
Heller also sided with conservatives during the 2011 budget debate and voted against a budget that cut nearly $40 billion from the budget, even though the bill's failure would have resulted in a government shutdown.
Berkley, meanwhile, has largely supported President Obama's agenda, the Las Vegas Sun points out. She voted in favor of the 2011 budget deal the president worked out with Republicans, even though most other House Democrats voted against it. She also supported Mr. Obama's stimulus and health care reform packages. Berkley also supports the president's call to end the Bush-era tax cuts for the wealthy.
While the Democratic establishment is firmly behind Berkley, the seven-term congresswoman has an additional challenge in her Senate bid, besides Heller's possible appointment to replace Ensign. She also has to fend off a primary challenge from Las Vegas lawyer Byron Georgiou, who has raised $1 million (about half coming from his own pocketbook) so far for his campaign, the Review-Journal reports.
Even though the latest developments could give Republicans a leg up in the race, it's clear that Democrats need to seize every opportunity to pick up seats. The party currently holds just 53 seats in the Senate and must defend 23 of those in the 2012 election. Republicans, by contrast, have to defend just 10.