Iran's Rubicon: Here We Come
Trick question.
Fact is that history is a lot more complicated than it sometimes seems at first blush.
Case in point: Was Russia's Menshevik government doomed because Lenin arrived at the Finland Station and left free to speechify? Or did Kerensky seal his future by failing to order his army's exit from a hugely unpopular war?
For that matter, you can similarly debate what triggered Czechoslavakia's `Velvet Revolution,' the fall of the Berlin Wall and even the collapse of the Soviet Union. However, despite the benefit of 20-20 retrospection, the explanations are still open to varying interpretation.
What they have in common is that there came a point when the political leaders understood that their peoples had crossed a Rubicon. Now, as the crisis in Iran enters its second week, outsiders watching from afar have to wonder whether Iran, too, has reached that juncture.
On Sunday, Iran's official media slammed Mir Hossein Mousavi, asserting that some of his actions were illegal. At the same time, the government pointed the finger at "terrorists" that it said were responsible for the weekend violence, in which at least 100 people were hurt.
Meanwhile, the government may be preparing the public for tougher steps. The Washington Post on Sunday reported that a Tehran University law professor was quoted by the semiofficial Fars News Agency saying that Mousavi's actions were criminal.
"Through uncivil and illegal means, he created an environment for unrest and hooliganism," Firouz Aslani said. "Contrary to his claims of lawfulness, he acted against the security of the nation and the interests of the system."
For his part, Mousavi is talking about this moment being "a turning point," one in which it has a "historical mission" to accomplish nothing less than "renewing the life of the nation" according to its own ideals. Long-time Iran watcher, Gary Sick, described that as a revolutionary statement.
"It is apparent from this statement that Mousavi's movement — and Mousavi himself — have evolved enormously in the past week. The candidate started as a mild-mannered reformer. After the searing events of the past several days, he has dared to preach a counter sermon to Khamene'i's lecture on Islamic government. Although he never mentions the Leader by name, there is no overlooking the direct contradiction of his arguments. This open opposition to the Leader by a political figure is unprecedented."
Mousavi's words are being backed up by the tens of thousands of people taking to the streets each day in defiance of the regime. Political observers say that even if Khamen'i ordered Mousavi's arrest, the civil disturbances would continue. If the violence escalates, what about the cohesion of the security institutions? Given Iran's history during the final days of the shah, that's not an entirely speculative question. In fact, A. Richard Norton at I.C. Global Affairs reports (so-far unconfirmed) rumors of increasing divisions between the army and the Revolutionary Guard, or Pasdaran.
"The demonstrators can scatter and reform repeatedly throughout the day and night. Meantime, the soldiers are on the job continuously with limited breaks. Morale can be expected to dip as the demonstrations go on; if they go on."
The Basijis are on hand to fill that vacuum though the revulsion inside Iran at their violent repression of demonstrators in the last several days might only push Iran closer to a point of no return. Whether that brings about revolution or reaction - we'll have to wait to find out. But whichever direction it's flowing, the Rubicon can't be so far away.