In Iowa, It's Make-or-Break Time For Some Candidates
The traditional campaign season--if such a thing still exists--isn't supposed to rev up until after Labor Day.
But what happens over the next dozen days in heat-scorched central Iowa could end up burying the hopes of more than one presidential wannabe and jostling the remaining lineup as the early front-runners and survivors head into the fall.
With the Iowa State Fair opening on Thursday, the carnival-like statewide GOP presidential straw poll Saturday in Ames, and a live, televised Democratic debate on August 19 in Des Moines, mid-August in the Hawkeye State promises to be a veritable bender of events, photo ops, food, music, and politicking. All for the benefit of voters who, in their January 14 caucuses, will be the first in the nation to cast ballots for presidential candidates.
It has political junkies slavering and candidates hustling. Take Republican Mitt Romney. Today he began broadcasting an ad in Iowa urging Republicans to "come to Ames" for the straw poll, and he has been keeping a daunting schedule of "Ask Mitt Anything" forums across the state. Or Democrat John Edwards. He announced this week that on Monday he and wife Elizabeth will start a seven-day bus tour at the state fairgrounds and end 31 counties later at the debate.
"These are all steps along the way as we get closer to the traditional campaign season," Romney spokesman Kevin Madden said today. "These are opportunities for us to test our organization and showcase it against other candidates."
But in these coming days the stakes appear to be the highest for Romney and other Republicans participating, or not, in the Iowa straw poll, expected to attract 40,000 party members. The poll"a state party fundraiser in which members pay $35 for a ticket (often procured for them by campaigns) that allows them to vote"is traditionally seen as an important early test of a candidate's strength and organization, though its stature seemed diminished two months ago when top candidates Rudy Giuliani and Sen. John McCain declined to participate.
But the implosion of McCain's campaign, front-runner Romney's strong and well-funded charge, and traction that Christian conservative Mike Huckabee and immigration hard-liner Rep. Tom Tancredo are getting have raised interest in the poll.
The Romney camp is trying to keep expectations in check.
"We're focused on using this as a full-body workout," Madden said today, to test the state organization for January's caucuses. Others are speculating that former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson "and maybe others" will be bidding the campaign trail adieu soon after the votes are counted. Iowa GOP Chairman Ray Hoffman says he doesn't expect McCain to finish in the top five. (Though not actively competing, McCain and Giuliani's names will still appear on the straw poll ballot.) About Giuliani, Hoffman said: "I believe he's making a big mistake. He could have turned out an extra 10,000 supporters for the caucus if he would have organized for this."
Straw poll wild card? Ron Paul, whose poll numbers are low but whose supporters are exceptionally fervent and who has just started TV advertising in the state. No matter who pollgoers support, they'll be treated to food and music, courtesy of the campaigns.
Romney's offering barbecue from the local Hickory Park Restaurant and music by bands including the Ballyhoo Foxtrot Orchestra, while Huckabee is importing watermelons from his hometown of Hope, Ark.
And in coming days a stampede of candidates, Democrat and Republican, will head to the state fair, making the obligatory stop by the butter-carved cow and gamely eating deep-fried offerings on a stick. Who can forget Sen. Joe Lieberman's well-documented noshing on a deep-fried Twinkie during his 2004 White House run? Remember then Sen. Bill Frist and his visit to a pigpen last year, when his name ad "president" were still being linked?
There's no place quite like Iowa in broiling mid-August in the lead-up to a presidential year.
By Liz Halloran