Hollywood's Cloudy Summer
A relentless barrage of big-budget summer films hasn't been able to help Hollywood's summer film slate keep up with last year's blistering revenue pace.
Several ingredients are missing this time around: a massive moneymaker like last year's "Spider-Man," and a sleeper hit such as "My Big Fat Greek Wedding," to name two.
Of late, though, moviegoers haven't rewarded recent big-budget films that had higher expectations, such as Vivendi Universal's "The Hulk," and Sony Corp.'s "Charlie's Angels 2: Full Throttle." The last three weekends have been down compared with the same periods in 2002.
That's leaving many to wonder whether the film with the season's biggest budget of all, Warner Bros.'s "Terminator 3: Rise Of The Machines," can recoup its original investment. "Terminator" debuted Wednesday.
"If you have three down weeks in a row, it's hard to dig yourself out of a deficit situation," said Paul Dergarabedian, president of box-office tracker Exhibitor Relations Inc. in Los Angeles.
Dergarabedian said U.S. film revenue is down 2 percent for the summer, and ticket sales are down 6 percent. Year-to-date, box-office sales are 4 percent off 2002's pace. Last year's total revenue exceeded $9 billion, with $3.8 billion of that from summer receipts.
"Terminator" is expected to bring in a huge box-office haul this weekend, particularly since it gets a jumpstart with two full extra days of showings on Wednesday and Thursday. There were some sneak previews of "Terminator" Tuesday night.
The film is a continuation of the sci-fi series starring Arnold Schwarzenegger. The first "Terminator" was a moderate success, but the second "Terminator 2: Judgment Day" became a huge hit, grossing $516 million worldwide.
"T3" will face some counter-programming competition from Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer's "Legally Blonde 2: Red, White and Blonde," as well as "Sinbad: Legend Of The Seven Seas" from privately held DreamWorks SKG. "Blonde" is targeted toward women and "Sinbad" is an animated film for families.
Reviews for "T3" are mixed, as some reviewers say the film is missing the touch of James Cameron, who directed the first two "Terminators" and went on to make the all-time box-office champ, "Titanic."
But there is expected to be a lot of pent-up demand for the film, which comes 12 years after "Terminator 2." Its "R" rating could be a roadblock, though parents have been known to ignore the designation so as not to deprive older kids of non-stop action in movies like this.
The formula worked for Warner with its other major entry for the summer season, "The Matrix Reloaded," which has turned in $641 million in worldwide receipts thus far.
Although Cameron was not involved with "T3," its budget is of "Titanic" proportions. At $170 million, it's tied for third place on the all-time big-budget list with the Warner mishap, "The Wild, Wild West."
"Titanic" is tops at $200 million and 1995's "Waterworld" cost $175 million.
Warner is not on the hook for "T3," since it gets a distribution fee regardless of the film's performance. Production company InterMedia Film Equities is paying for the bulk of the film's cost, along with private investors.
Dan Fellman, Warner's distribution president, said it's understandable that the film industry is lagging behind last year, since it was a record setter. But he says there is a chance that movie attendance will exceed last year's levels as the summer wears on since last year's slate fizzled out. He expects "T3" will kick off an uptick in box-office sales.
"There's more (big titles)," Fellman said. "And they're coming one behind the other. I think this summer could beat last year."
Jim Tharp, distribution chief for DreamWorks, says it may be asking too much for this summer movie season to beat last year's.
"I think it's probably to be expected. We had such a huge year last year," Tharp said. "Trying to compete with that is going to be difficult."
Tharp added 2004 should see an uptick in business, even exceeding 2002's record levels, thanks to a number of key releases.
Who's winning the battle thus far? The winner has to be Vivendi's Universal Studio group, which had three of the top six films in last weekend's budget tally, all with $100 million-plus box office takes thus far.
The best performer has been "Bruce Almighty," which has taken in $221.3 million. "2 Fast 2 Furious" has made $114 million and "Hulk" crossed the $100 million mark, although business for the film dropped a whopping 70 percent last weekend.
All three films opened at No. 1, helping Universal to win the June box office title by far. It's also got "Seabiscuit" July 25 and "American Wedding" Aug. 1.
Warner has a chance at topping Universal overall if "Terminator" scores big. "Matrix Reloaded" was the big winner for May, taking in $134 million after a long opening weekend, and $234 million for the month. It's made $270 million thus far.
The dark horse that could score an upset is Walt Disney Co.'s co-production with Pixar Inc, "Finding Nemo" is on its way to eclipsing "Matrix," making $257 million and holding strong at No. 3 after more than a month in theaters.
Disney also has "Pirates Of The Caribbean" scheduled for release next week, and "Freaky Friday" in August. "Pirates" is another big-budget offering, costing a reported $125 million. Disney has spent untold millions more to heavily market the film.