Grey Power Boosts Bush

By CBSNews.com political analyst Samuel J. Best

Bush initiatives targeting seniors, from the repeal of the federal estate tax to the creation of a Medicare prescription drug benefit, appear to have made a favorable impression on them. Mr. Bush received support from 53 percent of voters 60 and over, compared to 46 percent for Kerry, according to CBS News exit poll data.

[The CBS News exit polls were conducted by Edison/Mitofsky for the National Election Pool. Results are based on 13,531 voters exiting the polls across the nation, and have a margin of error of two percentage points.]

In the last three elections, voters 60 and over supported the Democratic nominee. Bill Clinton held a 12-point advantage over Mr. Bush's father, and a four-point advantage over Bob Dole. Al Gore received 51 percent of the senior vote to Mr. Bush's 47 percent.

Moreover, many of the key swing states broke according to seniors' preferences. In Florida, Ohio, and Colorado where Mr. Bush received support from a majority of seniors, he won. Conversely, in the battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Minnesota, where Mr. Bush failed to secure a majority of seniors, he lost.

Nationwide, seniors thought highly of Mr. Bush. Fifty-five percent of voters sixty and over had a favorable opinion of him, while 54 percent of them approved of his job performance.

Mr. Bush's appeal to seniors seemed to stem from his positions on social issues. Twenty one percent of voters over sixty named moral values as the issue that mattered most in their vote decision. Only 16 percent of seniors supported gay marriage, while only 16 percent believed abortion should be legal under all circumstances.

Mr. Bush's stance on terrorism also appeared to underlie his appeal to seniors. Nineteen percent of voters over sixty named terrorism as the most important issue to their electoral decision, while 55 percent said the Osama bin Laden video was very or somewhat important to their vote decision. Fifty-two percent of seniors said they felt safer from terrorism compared to four years ago. Fifty-eight percent trusted Mr. Bush as much or more than Kerry to handle terrorism

Health care was on the minds of seniors as well. 71 percent of voters 60 and over were very concerned about the cost of health care. Although only 12 percent of them said it was the issue that mattered the most in their vote choice, this was double the proportion of voters under forty-five who named it as a key factor.

Although much had been made about seniors' confusion with different voting procedures, 86 percent were very or somewhat confident that their votes would be counted correctly.

Kerry Corrals The Young

In contrast, John Kerry drew much of his support from younger voters. Kerry held a sizeable advantage among 18-29 year olds, winning 56 percent of the youth vote compared to 43 percent for Mr. Bush.

Although Democrats have won this age group in every election since 1992, this is the largest proportion of young voters to vote Democratic in decades. Forty-eight percent of 18-29 year olds voted for Gore, and Clinton received the support of 43 percent of the young voters in 1992, and 53 percent in 1996.

Young voters were more troubled by Mr. Bush than their senior counterparts. Only 47 percent of young voters had a favorable opinion of Mr. Bush, while just 48 percent of them approved of his job performance.

Much like seniors, younger voters placed importance on social issues, although their emphasis favored Kerry. Twenty-two percent named moral issues as the issue that mattered most in their decision. Forty-one percent of 18-29 years support gay marriage. Support for abortion under all circumstances was nearly ten points higher than seniors.

The economy and current job situation seemed to underlie the youth's support for Kerry as well. Twenty one percent named the economy and jobs as the most important issue in their electoral decision. Fifty-two percent thought the economy was not good or poor. Only 43 percent thought Mr. Bush would be better than Kerry in dealing with the economy.