Financial Markets Yawn at Bin Laden's Death

I didn't sleep much last night. The excitement I felt that, at long last, the most evil person on the planet would cause no more terror in the world was hard to wind down from. My excitement was apparently not shared by financial markets so far.

As of the time of this writing, the S&P 500 index was up 0.13 percent while international markets, as measured by the Vanguard FTSE All-World Ex US fared a bit better, up 0.17 percent. Oil was up 0.38 percent while gold was down 0.33 percent. A real yawner, if you ask me.

Parallels to Saddam Hussein's Capture?
On Sunday December 14, 2003, Saddam Hussein was captured. Marketwatch noted that "A Saddam Hussein rally across global markets is a sure thing come Monday morning." It seemed like a sure thing as, much like last night, futures soared. The S&P 500 closed down 0.57 percent the next trading day.

Do Financial Markets care about "bad guys?"
Yes - financial markets do like a more peaceful and prosperous world. But markets are a very complex organism and again have proved to be nearly impossible to explain in the short-run.

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Allan Roth

Allan S. Roth is the founder of Wealth Logic, an hourly based financial planning and investment advisory firm that advises clients with portfolios ranging from $10,000 to over $50 million. The author of How a Second Grader Beats Wall Street, Roth teaches investments and behavioral finance at the University of Denver and is a frequent speaker. He is required by law to note that his columns are not meant as specific investment advice, since any advice of that sort would need to take into account such things as each reader's willingness and need to take risk. His columns will specifically avoid the foolishness of predicting the next hot stock or what the stock market will do next month.

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