Expert Casts Emmy Predictions

The red carpet will be rolled out at the Los Angeles Shrine Auditorium Sunday night for the 51st annual Primetime Emmy Awards.

While television's high and mighty get ready for the night that makes and breaks the best in the business, millions of viewers are making their own predictions of this yearÂ's winners.

An Emmy Award reflects a specific episode or episodes submitted for judging, not a show's or a performer's entire body of work for a season. Actors tender one episode; a series vying for best comedy or drama submits eight.

Weighing them are peer panels made up of members of the Academy of Television Arts and Sciences. Actors judge acting nominees, directors review their colleagues, and so on during marathon viewing sessions in August.

That approach tends to assure that quality of the work, rather than industry buzz, helps determine the winner, says Emmy expert Thomas O'Neil, author of The Emmys. It also can result in surprises, particularly in the acting categories in which performers often kill their own chance with a weak episode.

"Every year you wonder what goes through these actors' heads," says O'Neil.

OÂ'Neil notes there are important elements to consider before making an educated forecast for Sunday's ceremony airing 8 p.m. ET on Fox.

Having the most nominations or critical support also doesn't guarantee a glorious outcome. HBO's suburban mob drama The Sopranos, with 16 nominations, is facing what O'Neil has deemed "the frontrunner's curse."

It's unique to television. When it comes to the Academy Awards, the film with the most bids took best picture nine out of the last 10 years. During the same period, Emmy frontrunners were tripped up six times, O'Neil says.

With that back story in mind, here are O'Neil's predictions in six categories:

Best actor in a comedy series: Kelsey Grammer, last year's winner, chose a dud with a Christmas-theme episode that failed to showcase his talent and may have put himself out of the running, O'Neil says.

John Lithgow of 3rd Rock From the Sun, on the other hand, is big and outrageous in a smartly performed piece of comedy, O'Neil says, naming him the likely winner.

O'Neil's dark horse: Paul Reiser for the tearjerker final episode of Mad About You.

Best actress in a comedy series: O'Neil is putting all his chips on Helen Hunt of Mad About You, who submitted the sitcom's emotional hourlong finale. The victory would be her fourth in a row, tying a record set in 1988 by John Larroquette of Night Court.

Best actor in a drama series: OÂ'Neil says heÂ's stumped, although heÂ's willing to rule out Jimmy Smits. The ex-NYPD Blue star submitted his deathbed episode, in which Smits is upstaged by co-star and fellow nominee Dennis Franz.

Because Franz rages in that 90-minute episode and then smolders quietly in the season finale he turned in, the range may sway voters, O'Neil says. He pcks Dylan McDermott of The Practice as a deserving upset winner.

Best actress in a drama series: Last year's winner Christine Lahti could take the trophy again for Chicago Hope, but OÂ'Neil says the character's unlovable nature may undercut her big, explosive performance. Edie Falco, the mob wife in The Sopranos, turned in a wonderful example of her work and has a serious shot, he says.

Best comedy series: A weak season rules out a sixth victory for Frasier and opens the door for Everybody Loves Raymond, the kind of family comedy that gives Emmy voters a warm feeling, O'Neil says. But he suggests keeping an eye on the hourlong Ally McBeal, which combines comedy and emotional heft.

Best drama series: The Practice, which had a strong year, both in stories and in showcasing its appealing cast of lawyers, is invincible, O'Neil maintains. If there is a surprise winner, he tags NYPD Blue for its emotionally complex year.

While O'Neil says The Sopranos simply faces too many hurdles, like the difficult characters, an intricate story that must be seen in its entirety to be fully appreciated, and a macho nature that may repel some female voters, on Sunday viewers will find out for certain.

For more information on the Emmy Awards, view this Web site.