Detect Faked Data at Your Next Presentation Using Simple Science
Most of us aren't math whzizzes, and so our eyes glaze over when presented with lots of numbers. That's what fakers count on when they pad expense reports, bolster their KPIs, and doctor charts at the quarterly review. They're all just numbers, right? Unless you have access to the original data, you just have to take their word for it.
Not quite. There's a simple mathematical principle called Benford's Law that says numbers don't occur randomly in nature, and that makes it somewhat easier to know if you're looking at faked data.
Actually, when I say it's simple, I'm kind of exaggerating. It all comes from this equation, which predicts the probability of encountering any particular number at random:
How is that helpful? Well, this equation tells us that if you choose a number at random, it is going to be a 1 about 30% of the time. That's pretty freaky; you might expect that the odds would be much closer to 1 in 9. Perhaps stranger: The number 9 is statistically less likely to turn up, which means that if you're getting creative with a chart in a PowerPoint deck, you should lay off the 9s if you want the data to look plausible.
Actually, it isn't as spooky as it sounds; it all makes sense when you read the very accessible and plain-English article at SHIFT_beep. Check it out and it you'll definitely feel smarter. [via Lifehacker]
