I wrote about the impending battle last month when Southwest announced five daily flights on the route and JetBlue quickly responded with four of its own. With AirTran also on the route, I figured Delta would be the first to go, and as Dan Webb notes, fares have been plunging. But I'm still really interested to see how the remaining three compete.
There aren't many routes out there that have three low cost carriers competing head-to-head. I tend to think that the incumbent will continue to do well. AirTran has strong draws on both ends and has the most frequency. Southwest also has strong draws on both ends. JetBlue may very well be the odd man out here.
JetBlue has the fewest flights in the market and a non-existent following in Baltimore. It is really going to be relying on Boston travelers to fill this route, and there are very few connecting opportunities to help fill the plane. Is there really enough traffic in this market for everyone? I doubt it.
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