Death of the (Traditional) Minivan
Fuel economy rules today, and it's led Ford to make a business decision that would have been unthinkable even a year ago -- it's going to sell a big minivan in Europe but not the U.S. Are we in Bizarro World?
The bottom line is that the best way to make a fuel-efficient seven passenger van is to run it at least partly on batteries. That's a big reason Ford not only canceled the bigger version of the C-MAX, but also announced that it was increasing production of five-seat hybrid and plug-in hybrid versions.
Ford is also seeing a waning market for the bigger people movers. It said Thursday that expanding the electrified lineup for 2013 presented "a stronger business case" than bringing the seven-passenger minivan (already sold in Europe, where it's called the Grand C-MAX) to the U.S. That means as many as 100,000 of the hybrid and Energi plug-in hybrid versions of the C-MAX annually.
Fast thinking
This was a decision made in haste. Jim Farley, a Ford vice president, said, "Customers have come to expect fuel efficiency with every new vehicle Ford delivers today." That's why it's bringing a three-cylinder engine to the U.S., another unthinkable until very recently. And he told reporters:
Customers have really changed in the last 120 days. People are so focused on fuel economy.The Grand C-MAX, which like all of the breed is based on the compact Focus, is kind of an awkward seven-seater anyway, with a five-inch stretch and a third row shoehorned in, but without the rear headroom to accommodate adults. It needs compliant children. The seven-seat C-MAX might have achieved 23/30 mpg fuel economy, which isn't bad, but the Energi will score with 41 combined, plus a huge range of 500 miles. Pricing is important, and they haven't announced that yet.
According to Michael Lew, a Needham & Company equity analyst:
The seven-passenger cancellation shows that over time there will be a transition away from that format. We're seeing more Volts and Leafs on the road, and increasing production in the electrified lineup is a sign of the times.Chrysler to the rescue? Unlikely.
Lew also said that Chrysler had been toying with an electric version of the classic Town and Country minivan, which could offer an option for people in need of big-scale people movers. Indeed it could, if Chrysler got serious about that program. It showed the plug-in van as part of its aborted ENVI electric lineup in 2008, and revived it last year -- as part of a test program for the U.S. Postal Service. Unfortunately, Chrysler has a totally confused electrification strategy, and it isn't likely to actually produce an electric minivan in volume anytime soon.
The hybrid and Energy C-MAX's compact vans are attractive propositions, and will go head-to-head in the marketplace with the new extended V version of the Prius, which Toyota is debuting next week. This category of scaled-down minivans, known as MPVs in Europe and Japan (where they're common) is under-represented in the U.S. Now that the Kia Rondo is gone, only the $20,000 Mazda5 fits. There's huge room for expansion in MPVs, and automakers should scour their international catalogs for versions that could be sold in the U.S.
But automakers will still have to figure out some kind of plug-in seven-seater. I've had countless large family folks tell me they didn't want to buy a Suburban, but nothing else could accommodate a row of three car seats abreast. If Chrysler does finally get serious about an electric Town and Country, it could have a surprise left-field hit on its hands.
In 2008, Jalopnik looked at a whole field of planned Chrysler electrics, from sports cars to Jeeps, and concluded:
Among today's unveils, the electrified minivan seems like the killer-app here, with the possibility of pollution-free kid hauling and a claimed 400 miles on eight gallons of gas (50 MPG!).Related: Photo: Ford