Cryptometer: Scandal Edition

Normally, The Politico runs Cryptometers on critical issues and key players on Capitol Hill, such as those involved in the political struggle over the war in Iraq. But this week, we're doing something a little different. We're running a Cryptometer on the lawmakers in legal trouble -- and ranking them on how deep we think that trouble is. As always, everyone here is innocent until proven otherwise.

-- Rep. William Jefferson (D-La.). It is only a question of when, not if, Jefferson will be indicted or plead out. And it's just a question of what charges the Justice Department will file against him, not whether he will be charged.

Look at the facts that are publicly available so far: Jefferson was videotaped in July 2005 accepting $100,000 from an FBI informant, $90,000 of which was later pulled out of a freezer at Jefferson's Northern Virginia home, according to a Justice Department affidavit. The informant, investor Lori Mody, allegedly gave the money to Jefferson as part of a bribe payment for a high-ranking Nigerian government official. That official was reportedly then to swing a telecom contract to a firm owned, in part, by Jefferson's family. Two men, including a former Jefferson aide, have already pleaded guilty in the case and received lengthy prison terms.

Then there's the May 20, 2006, raid on Jefferson's office in the Rayburn House Office Building. Armed with a search warrant from a federal judge, FBI agents and Justice Department officials descended on his congressional digs and took thousands of pages of documents, as well as computer hard drives. House leaders on both sides of the aisle protested that the Justice Department had overreached its authority, and the case ended up in federal appeals court. The Justice Department has not been in any hurry to charge Jefferson while the legal case is pending, since the department would then have to admit it didn't need the office search to charge Jefferson. But sooner rather than later, Jefferson is expected to face corruption charges.

-- Rep. John Doolittle (R-Calif.). We wrestled with how high to rank Doolittle, but when the FBI raids your house and your former aide is talking to the Justice Department, then you know that you're in serious trouble.

Doolittle has been tied to imprisoned former lobbyist Jack Abramoff. Doolittle's wife, Julie, received tens of thousands of dollars in payments from Abramoff for still undefined work, and the anti-gambling Rep. Doolittle then wrote a letter to the Bureau of Indian Affairs on behalf of an Iowa tribe that Abramoff wanted to be allowed to open a casino. Doolittle has been insisting for a while that this will all blow over -- your basic "the truth will set me free" defense. The feds have been talking with a former aide, Kevin Ring, who also just happened to work for Abramoff.

-- Rep. Rick Renzi (R-Ariz.). His family business was raided by the FBI last week, and his former chief of staff has resigned and is now cooperating with the Justice Department as prosecutors look into allegations of whether Renzi was paid for helping to arrange a federal land swap. (Props to The Wall Street Journal here.) Renzi lost out to Doolittle for the No. 2 spot only because his case hasn't been around as long. But there are no good signs here for the three-term lawmaker.

-- Rep. Jerry Lewis (R-Calif.). The current ranking Republican on the powerful House Appropriations Committee has shelled out roughly $1 million for lawyers, showing how seriously he's taking this issue. The congressman has been under federal investigation over his ties to former representative Bill Lowery (R-Calif.).

The probe centers on whether Lewis earmarked funds for Lowery's clients in return for campaign contributions. Lewis has denied any wrongdoing. The FBI is also looking at current and former Lewis aides and their own interactions with Lowery. And the recent corruption indictment of former defense contractor Brent Wilkeswho hired Lowery's firm, doesn't help the veteran lawmaker.

-- Rep. Gary G. Miller (R-Calif.). The FBI is looking into whether Miller failed to properly report several lucrative land deals. He avoided millions in taxes on those deals by claiming the sales were forced, though media reports suggest otherwise. Miller has already made the "I have done nothing wrong" speech for colleagues, so expect more on this front soon.

-- Rep. Alan B. Mollohan (D-W.Va.). Don't forget this case, and you can be sure that the Justice Department and Republicans haven't. Mollohan has been under investigation by the feds for earmarking money for a nonprofit run by a former aide, who donated to his reelection campaign.

-- Honorable Mention: Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Calif.), who was linked to the Lewis-Lowery earmark inquiry in media reports when federal investigators pulled his financial disclosure records last year. It's unclear how big a role Calvert has played in this case.