CIA Director's Testimony

Mr. Chairman, as we face a new century, we face a new world. A world where technology, especially information technology, develops and spreads at lightning speed—and becomes obsolete just as fast.

A world of increasing economic integration, where a US company designs a product in Des Moines, makes it in Mumbai, and sells it in Sydney.

A world where nation-states remain the most important and powerful players, but where multinational corporations, nongovernment organizations, and even individuals can have a dramatic impact…

Mr. Chairman, last spring, [India and Pakistan] narrowly averted a full-scale war in Kashmir, which could have escalated to the nuclear level.

The military balance can be summarized easily: India enjoys advantages over Pakistan in most areas of conventional defense preparedness, including a decisive advantage in fighter aircraft, almost twice as many men under arms, and a much larger economy.

Recent changes in government in both countries add tensions the picture. The October coup in Pakistan that brought to power Gen. Musharraf—who served as Army chief during the Kargil conflict with India last summer—has reinforced New Delhi's inclination not to reopen the bilateral dialogue anytime soon.

Pakistanis are equally suspicious of India's newly elected coalition government in which Hindu nationalists hold significant sway.

Clearly, the dispute over Kashmir remains as intractable as ever.

We are particularly concerned that heavy fighting is continuing through the winter, unlike in the past, and probably will increase significantly in the spring.

New Delhi may opt to crack down hard on Kashmiri militants operating on the Indian side of the Line of Control or even order military strikes against militant training camps inside Pakistani-held Kashmir.

Thus, we must head into the new year, Mr. Chairman, with continuing deep concerns about the antagonisms that persist in South Asia and their potential to fuel a wider and more dangerous conflict on the subcontinent.