Chat with Celeste Wallander

By CBSNews.com staff CBSNews.com staff

May 13, 1999 / 5:35 PM EDT / CBS

On May 12, 1999, CBS News and the America Online audience chatted with Celeste Wallander about the political shake-up within Russia and Russia's position on the Kosovo crisis. Wallander is a professor at the Davis Center for Russian Studies at Harvard University.

Audience question: Today, on the eve of an impeachment trial, Russian President Yeltsin fired Prime Minister Primakov. Can you explain what's going on politically in Russia?

Celeste Wallander: There have been rumors for some time that Yeltsin was going to dismiss Primakov but it is always difficult to evaluate the seriousness of these rumors. What seems to have happened is that Yeltsin had indicated that unless Primakov prevented the Duma from proceeding with the impeachment that he, Yeltsin, would lose confidence in Primakov as Prime Minister. When Primakov did not prevent the Duma from proceeding then Yeltsin appears to have carried through with his implied threat. The complicating factor is that Yeltsin claims this is because Primakov has failed to implement serious econmic reforms. But it is difficult to see that this is serious. It has been viewed all along that Primakov's great strength as Prime Minister has been to create stability, not change.

Audience question: What's the liklihood that Yeltsin will be impeached?

Celeste Wallander: Before Primakov was dismissed analysts considered it unlikely that the Duma would be able to come up with a 2/3 vote in favor of impeachment on any of the counts against Yeltsin. There was some chance that he would be impeached on the count against the President for the war in Chechnya. Now, most analysts consider it highly likely that Yeltsin will be impeached on that one count, and perhaps that he will be impeached on one or more of the others.

Audience question: Who would then replace Yeltsin?

Celeste Wallander: As in the American system, impeaching the President is only the first step. If the Duma does impeach him on any of the counts, then both the Supreme Court and the Constitutional Court would have to rule on the legality of the impeachment charge. If they ruled positively, then the Federation Council would consider the charges and would have to pass it by a 2/3 vote themselves (the Federation Council is analgous to the US Senate.)

Even though it is now considered more likely that Yeltsin will be impeached by the Duma it remains entirely unlikely that he will be removed from office by the Federation Council. Under the Constitution, at that point, he would be replaced by the Prime Minister for a 3 month period until new Presidential elections could be held. That would mean that the acting Prime Minister that Yeltsin has named, Sergei Stephashin, would be President during that 3-month perio.

Audience question: How will this political shake-up in Russia affect the search for a diplomatic solution to the Kosovo crisis?

Celeste Wallander: It makes it much more difficult for Russia to contribute to a diplomatic solution on Kosovo. Yeltsin was already very vulnerable in domestic politics to criticism that he is too cooperative and too submissive to the US and NATO. Now he is all the more weakened domestically and it is not clear that he will have the domestic support within the government to try to, in the Russian view, save NATO from itself.

Audience question: Last week, Russia seemed aligned with NATO on an agreement for a plan for peace in Kosovo. Now, Russia is siding with China in its demands for an end to the NATO bombing as a condition for a peace solution. Should this RE-alignment concern NATO?

Celeste Wallander: I don't think the Russian position on Kosovo and an agreement has really changed. Russia has consistently called, everyday, for a stop to the bombing. What we saw last week was an emphasis to negotiation within the G-8, which Russia has always favored. What has happened this week is simply a re-emphasis on the call to NATO to stop its bombing to solve the crisis. There is really no basis for a fundamental alignment of foreign policy between Russia and China. I think this should be seen as a shift of the moment that could shift again.

Audience question: How much leverage Russia has over Milosevic. Can they convince Milosevic to compromise for a peace solution?

Celeste Wallander: Russian leverage over Milosevic probably decreases as the crisis goes on in political terms. It becomes clearer, over time, that Russian interests and policies are not Serbian. But Russian leverage does increase for two reasons: The first is that Russia is Serbia's main supplier of oil. The Second is that as the crisis goes on Milosevic must face the prospect that the UN Security Council will decide to simply impose a settlement on Serbia, rather than agree to one. So the time is good for an agreement because Russia still has some influence to bring to bear on Serbia.

Audience question: What is Russia's reaction to NATO's continued bombing after Russia has called for a halt to it?

Celeste Wallander: Yeltsin has said in the last couple of days that the Russian government is very dissatisfied with NATO's disregard for Russian proposals and efforts. There is a risk for Russia that, as it continues in its negotiation effort, it will look foolish, weak and helpless when NATO appears to ignore the diplomatic track. So it cannot go on indefinitely that NATO expects Russia to negotiate while NATO uses military force.

Audience question: Iit at all likely Russia will or could have a military presance in Kosovo? Or even, might they have a peacekeeping force in the region?

Celeste Wallander: I think it is extremely unlikely that any military mission in Kosovo will be a peacekeeping mission in the traditional sense. Peacekeepers are neutral, armed only for self-defense, and not allowed to interfere - for example, in rescuing civilians. The term that is being used is an international security force, which is different. Russian participation in an international security force is certainly possible, as long as the force is not under NATO command. Russia's military will not agree to be subordinated to NATO command under these circumstances.

Audience question: The military is not being paid. Most people in Russia are not being paid. There are more than 20,000 organized crime operating freely. Most political parties in Russia are funded by the mafia. Do you think there will be a civil war in Russia?

Celeste Wallander: Russian society has lived through a lot in the last decade, so much that Americans might wonder whether we wouldn't want a civil war under these circumstances. The bad news is that Russian society is fragmented, weak, and alienated. The good news is that historically, under these conditions, people find it difficult to cooperate effectively for major protests, rebellion, or even civil war.

Even the Russian military, we should understand, is deeply divided and probably unable iself to take the lead in any sort of attack against the state. So the problem isn't really a Russian civil war, so much as Russia's inability to positively take action to cooperate with the US in areas such as arms control and conflict resolution.

Audience question: Will Yeltsin's possible impeachment further affect Russia's ailing economy?

Celeste Wallander: Unfortunately it appears that things will get worse. Russia is likely to default on its international debt obligations this year without new IMF loans. The IMF had promised 4.5 billion dollars in loans but the pre-condition was that the Duma pass legislation to implement some fundamental economic reform. With the confrontation between the President and the Duma experts agree that this legislation will not be passed and therefore the IMF will not grant the loans and Russia will default on its international debt. Under those circumstances, foreign investments, foreign trade, and international economic cooperation, which are necessary for Russia's economic renewal, are unlikely.

Audience question:What are the chances of the Communist Party regaining a ruling majority in Russia in the near future?

Celeste Wallander: Before this crisis experts were estimating that the Duma might win as many as 23 of the seats in the upcoming December elections. Now, it is hard to say. It depends on how the different parties and political figures manage this political crisis. That is, who appears to be likely to be responsible to help Russia get out of this mess, to offer some hope for the future. That could be the Communist Party, but I think the situation now is so unstable and so uncertain, it is difficult to say.

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