A Republican-sponsored repeal of Obamacare without a replacement plan would leave 32 million people uninsured by 2026, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office predicted in an estimate released Tuesday.
CBO evaluated what would happen if Congress enacts a reconciliation bill similar to one from 2015 that would eliminate Obamacare’s mandate penalties and subsidies while leaving the insurance market reforms in place.
If a replacement plan isn’t implemented following the dismantling of the law, CBO estimates that 18 million people would become uninsured in the first year, and premiums would rise by 20 to 25 percent for individual policies purchased through marketplaces or directly from insurers.
Twenty-seven million people would become uninsured, CBO estimates, after the elimination of Obamacare’s Medicaid eligibility expansion and subsidies for insurance through Obamacare marketplaces. Premiums would then reach 50 percent, the report forecast.
By 2026, CBO estimates 32 million people would be uninsured and premiums will have doubled.
The estimate was requested by Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-New York, Senate Finance Committee Ranking Member Ron Wyden, D-Oregon and Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee Ranking Member Patty Murray, D-Washington.
The estimate comes days before Rep. Tom Price, R-Georgia, is set to testify at his Senate confirmation hearing Wednesday on his nomination to serve as secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services. It also comes before President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration on Friday.
Mr. Trump told The Washington Post in an interview published Sunday that his plan to replace Obamacare would include “insurance for everybody,” but he hasn’t revealed details of the plan and Republicans appear divided over when to actually implement a repeal and replacement.