Can Robots Become the New Thing That Detroit Does?
Maybe it's because the population of Detroit dropped by 25 percent in the past decade. Maybe it's because two of the Big Three automakers went bankrupt in 2009 and the third had to mortgage everything in sight to stay alive. Whatever is was, Detroit is now hot to diversify it local economy. The question is, Should it bother?
The knock on Motown is that it's a one-industry town. But having the car industry as your main industry isn't all bad. It's just that it isn't as great as it was in the postwar 1950s, when one of every two vehicles sold in the U.S. was made by General Motors (GM).
The neverending quest for industrial cool
While other business centers in America have moved on to service industries -- finance and media in New York, entertainment in L.A., technology in the Bay Area -- Detroit's fortunes are still yoked to manufacturing. So it is to other types of manufacturing that Motown looks to improve its destiny. This is where robots come in.
Or more accurately, robotics. It makes sense, as the auto industry uses plenty of robots to build cars. Obviously, these are not the anthropomorphic robots that get all the press -- like Honda's ASIMO, or even GM's Robonaut2. Rather, these are purpose-build industrial creations that make manufacturing more efficient and profitable.
First, create a school, and then the business will follow
Detroit -- or more generally, Michigan -- figures that it can become a center of robotics research. This has prompted the usual "Robocop" jokes, particularly since Detroit is planning to erect a statue to the dystopian memory of that film. Complicating matters is the degree to which this venture will be a tourist attraction, rather than a locus of science and engineering. There's a robot theme park in the works in South Korea. But Michigan has something more serious in mind. After all, there's no microchip ride in Silicon Valley.
The problem is that robotics, while extremely interesting, lack the consumer applications that have made the auto industry such a pillar of the economy. Quick, name a robot that everyday people can buy. If you said, "Roomba," you'd have an inkling of what Detroit is up against, image-wise. It's tough to go from building cars to building autonomous vacuum cleaners.
Stick with the cars, please
There's nothing wrong with Detroit becoming America's robot city. But no one should delude themselves about how this, or cleantech, or any of a number of other proposed bridges to the Upper Midwest's economic future will replace the car business. When you have a robust auto industry -- and make no mistake, battered as it may be, Detroit still has that -- you only need diversification when times get very, very tough.
The U.S. market alone is huge, people need new cars and trucks, and the foreign "transplants" don't have enough capacity to satisfy demand. So Detroit's ongoing role is clear: build automobiles, and build them as profitably as possible.
Transportation research instead?
Robots capture the imagination, but what Michigan could really stand to do is become a center for transportation research. Over the next two or three decades, the world's transportation landscape will undergo tremendous change. Some of this will be driven by policy, some by reality: the EPA is mandating more fuel-efficient auto fleets, and we are gradually maxing out our fossil fuel resources.
Transportation will be a worldwide megabusiness by the middle of the century. There will be a lot more robots, too, but my guess is that they'll remain in niche consumer applications, be much more prevalent in the military, and play a prominent role in manufacturing. Will they be a defining global industry? Probably not. I'm not saying Detroit shouldn't go there. I'm just saying that Motown shouldn't get distracted from, as Eminem memorably put it (and I'm paraphrasing), what it does.
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