Bobbing For Wash. Apples
Remember back in New Hampshire, when we all thought John McCain and Bill Bradley were competing for the votes of quirky mavericks, hoping a win in an oddball state would convince the rest of the country they were real players?
That situation is now repeating itself at the other end of the country. McCain and Bradley think Washington state voters, who are willing to dance to the beat of a different drum, will help them out. Of course, McCain has now actually won something, while Bradley has languished in the cruel emptiness of the Democratic schedule since New Hampshire.
| Mud Delay For McCain BREMERTON, Wash. - Sen. John McCain's campaign was delayed after his plane got stuck in the mud for about two hours as it prepared to fly to Sacramento, California. McCain and his wife, Cindy, napped part of the time Wednesday night while waiting on board. Nobody was hurt. The Port of Bremerton, which runs the airport, has no equipment capable of towing such a large airplane, officials said. Four port workers using shovels made room for a large steel plate to place under the landing gear and provide traction. After two hours the passengers were asked to leave to lighten the load so the pilot could fire up the engines and push the plane out of the mud. The plane finally took off for Sacramento at 12:35 Thursday morning. (AP) |
Next Tuesday, Washington Republicans and Democrats are holding primaries that are open to all comers. But the Democratic primary is merely a beauty contest; it will choose no delegates. And the Republican primary selects only 12 of the state's 37 GOP delegates.
The real heavy lifting takes place a week later on March 7, when caucuses in both parties take place. The caucuses are open only to people who've committed to one party or the other. That's when party regulars, the ones who are more committed to Gore and Bush, will get to work.
The state's push-me-pull-you process reflects McCain's dilemma. He wants to suck up every last independent or Democratic voter he can, even as he seeks to reassure and cultivate establishment Republicans who don't know what to make of him.
"In the primary, I would anticipate he'd do quite well," says Professor Donald McCrone, a political scientist at the University of Washington. But the caucus is another story, "because then he's getting back to, if I may use the term, real Republicans."
That's why McCain's rhetoric has started to shift. That's why he wheedles and cajoles Republicans now, saying "'m a proud, Reagan conservative, and you can trust me."
If that message could get out in time for the caucuses, it would really improve his chances, observes the state Republican chairman, Dale Foreman, who is neutral.
But the same conservative credentials McCain is underlining now may cost him a few votes in Washington. Berendt believes Democrats won't cross over to McCain. "We do not like conservative Republicans in this state. He's supported the entire Republican agenda in Congress, and that will not set well here."
So can Bradley rake in those Democrats? As he said in an earlier visit, the state of Washington and I are in real sync. Desperate for any kind of win before the tidal wave of March 7 washes over him, Bradley has chosen to make this high-stakes poker," says Berendt, a Gore supporter. Bradley is spending all his time in Washington till next Tuesday's beauty pageant.
"This should be a good state for Bradley," says McCrone. "Nonetheless, this is a state ... with a strong union component and a pretty important civil rights element," and despite Bradley's best efforts, he has not done well among those voters.
Even Berendt believes that "whoever wins the primary is going to win the caucus," and that's why Bradley is expending so much effort. "To pull off a victory against great odds would give an incredible boost going into March 7," Bradley communications director Eric Hauser told CBS Wednesday. "We want to have a one-on-one contest in a single state. We think that would be to our advantage."
Its a risky strategy. So is McCains effort to keep crossover voters without alienating traditional Republicans. The numbers are against both candidates. But as Foreman notes, McCain has something beyond numbers on his side. "Behind McCain, theres passion, and the passion he conveys is contagious. And that kind of thing upsets the apple cart." Bradleys hoping hell get some of those upset Washington apples as well.