Writing on the Wall
Mashable got a preview of Adobe Edge recently:
The product, which relies on strict HTML standards and does not incorporate Flash, is not meant to replace existing web design tools like Dreamweaver or Flash, but to coexist with them, enhancing Adobe's position as a leader in the future of Web infrastructure, especially as HTML5 becomes increasingly important in the world of mobile.
Abobe's own website calls Edge "a new addition to the existing set of Adobe professional web tools" including Flash itself, but the company has been digging Flash's grave for a while now:
- October 2010: Adobe releases a Flash-to-HTML 5 converter
- July 2011: Adobe closes its Flash-based app stores
- August 2011: HTML 5-driven Edge is announced
Even if Adobe still believed in Flash, the platform would be in trouble because it isn't being supported by the fastest growing computer platform: tablets.
Adobe got off on the wrong foot in 2010 when Apple (APPL) didn't support Flash on its iPad. Some critics argued it was former Apple head Steve Jobs' personal beef, but he said it was because Adobe's Flash platform was an insecure battery hog. Adobe retaliated by releasing Packager, a software that made Flash website usable on the iPad. The company has been relatively quiet about Packager since its Spring 2010 release, which may be indicative of how much support it's getting from Adobe.
It had the brutal battle with Apple, but even its strongest tablet ally, Google (GOOG), is having issues supporting Flash. For instance, with the high-profile HP TouchPad, one of the biggest complaints was unstable Flash.
As Nick Clayton of the Wall Street Journal notes, Flash still has some relevance because some software like Windows XP and Internet Explorer 6 can't read HTML 5. The question then becomes how long XP, IE6, and other older platforms will be relevant themselves. With the speed of tablet sales and software updates, I suspect it will not be that long.
Photo courtesy of L. Marie