2011 Predictions Update: So Far I'm Dead Right
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In last month's post "2011 Predictions: Economy Stalls, Obamacare Dies, iPhone Rules" I laid out what I thought was was going to happen over the next year. Most of the time, when people make predictions like that, they simply wait until the year is up, and if the predictions come true, they republicize them, and if not, well..., the less said the better.
Rather than doing this, I'm going to provide regular updates on how those predictions are faring. This is the first, there will be others as the year proceeds. My top five predictions were:
- #1: The Economy Will Continue to Sputter. Republican obstructionism will prevent higher unemployment until after the 2012 election in order to capture the presidency and a senate majority.
- #2: Obamacare Will Be Gutted. Any elements of the "Affordable Health Care Act" that result in better healthcare and survival rates for poor, non-white people will be expunged.
- #3 Verizon iPhone Will Flatten Android Sales. Once the iPhone becomes available on multiple carriers, the Android market will become weaker because Apple will becoem the top choice.
- #4: High Tech Firms Will Be Caught Using Slave Labor. Growing transparency in China will "out" the high tech vendors who have been benefiting from lax enforcement of labor laws.
- #5: Sales Tech Firms Will Massively Consolidate. The absurdity of having dozens of small firms providing various sales applications will spawn a buying frenzy among the larger vendors.
- #1. While there are some signs of job recovery, unemployment remains high, with little sign that there will be any recovery any time soon. However, to be fair, it's WAY too soon to stick the blame anywhere, so we need to wait and see how Boehner (whom I happen to like personally) rolls out his agenda. (See "Why Republicans Sell Better than Democrats.")
- #2: The new Republican Congress has already started this process with the hilariously-named "Repealing the Job-Killing Health Care Law Act" -- a symbolic vote that's clearly the harbinger of more histrionics to come. Why hilarious? See: "Top 5 Reasons Obamacare is Bad for Business."
- #3: The Verizon iPhone was announced today, and from the reaction of AT&T (sniping at Verizon), it's pretty clear that it's going to be a huge success. Once again, it remains to be seen whether iPhone on Verizon is going to dry up Android sales, but... if you were a Verizon customer, which would YOU choose?
- #4: It's not slave labor, but a battery factory in China was found to be poisoning local children, yet another sign that outsourcing to China is a very dirty business. There were also reports that the rare earths used in popular products (like the iPhone) are channeled through Chinese mafia organizations. The dirt on high tech outsourcing is beginning to come out folks, so stay tuned.
- #5: As my friend and colleague Wayne Turmel pointed out in his excellent BNET blog, Connected Manager, Salesforce.com has just bought the web presentation platform company Dimdim for 31 million dollars. This is, I believe, the first of many acquisitions, so if you're interested in the dynamics of this market, check out Wayne's excellent analysis.
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