Tropics waking from mid-summer slumber with tropical wave set to drench South Florida this weekend
MIAMI -- As we head into the weekend, we will see directs impacts from one of the areas being watched by the National Hurricane Center.
A tropical wave will move through South Florida and help charge our typical showers and storms with deep moisture while at the same time making the Saturday forecast a bit tricky.
Still going with on/off rain, heavy at times. With all the recent rainfall, many areas have saturated ground and will be more susceptible to flooding.
This easterly wave will not stay with us too long but long enough to impact our weekend. Sunday should see the return of more scattered storm coverage as it departs and heads into the Gulf of Mexico. It is there where the NHC has interest in its evolution which, at a minimum, looks to give Texas a pretty good drought-quenching rain event next week.
As for all the other areas and their various colors, yellow for low orange for medium and red for high, we are likely to get at least one named storm out of one of them in the eastern Atlantic.
However, the wave with the highest probability of developing into a closed, organized tropical system will also be pulling to the north where it will eventually be sheared apart.
The models don't do much with the middle wave, it's too close to the other two and so that leaves us with the first wave in the conga line to watch.
This one too is currently not a threat to us, and it looks like it will just move through the islands with a good dose of rain next week.
But I always have more interest in the disorganized waves. Unlike a compact point the models can lock into so we can forecast it out, they can meander until they find a sweet spot then decide to pop. Right now, I'm not expecting that, but I don't take my eyes off the ones that don't look like much. Things can change rapidly in the tropics as we head into the peak of the season.
