Most evenly matched Super Bowls ever
Will Super Bowl XLVI be a close game?
The New England Patriots and New York Giants will clash in Super Bowl XLVI this Sunday and if you believe Las Vegas, it's one of the most evenly matched title games ever. Depending on the casino, the Patriots are listed as a 2.5 or 3-point favorite.
Complete coverage: Super Bowl XLVI
That's about as low a spread as you'll find in Super Bowl history. In fact, only 11 Super Bowls ever have had a point spread of 3 points or less at kickoff and only two big games since 1988 have had such a small margin.
However, a small point spread doesn't usually portend a close game. Only one such game (Super Bowl V in 1971) actually had a final score with a margin of 3 points or less. And only four of the 11 "evenly matched" Super Bowls ended with a final score point differential of less than 10 points. In fact, five of the 11 "evenly matched" games have been blowouts, with the victor winning by at least 17 points.
So if history is any indication, the Patriots-Giants game may be deemed close on paper but the actual game may not be close at all. That said, last year's Super Bowl (in which the Packers were a 2.5 favorite over the Steelers) was an exception. Green Bay won a nail biter, 31-25.
Click the scroll bar above to see the other 11 Super Bowls that had a point spread of 3 points or less - and how the game actually unfolded.
Most evenly matched Super Bowls ever
Super Bowl V (1970-71)
The Dallas Cowboys were a 1-point favorite vs. the Baltimore Colts.
Rookie kicker Jim O'Brien's 32-yard field goal in the final five seconds was the difference in the game. Dallas led 13-6 at the half but interceptions by Rick Volk and Mike Curtis set up a Baltimore touchdown and O'Brien's decisive kick in the fourth period. Dallas' Chuck Howley, who picked off two passes, became the first defensive player and the first player from a losing team to be named MVP.
The oddsmakers thought this would be a tight game and they were right.
Final score: Baltimore 16, Dallas 13
Most evenly matched Super Bowls ever
Super Bowl VII (1972-73)
The Washington Redskins were a 2-point favorite vs. the Miami Dolphins.
The Dolphins played virtually perfect football in the first half as their defense permitted the Redskins to cross midfield only once and their offense turned good field position into two touchdowns. Washington's only touchdown came late in the game when a field-goal attempt was misplayed and fumbled by Garo Yepremian. The Redskins' Mike Bass picked the ball out of the air and ran 49 yards for the score. But that was all Washington could muster as Miami dominated.
Final score: Miami 14, Washington 7
Most evenly matched Super Bowls ever
Super Bowl IX (1974-75)
The Pittsburgh Steelers were a 3-point favorite vs. the Minnesota Vikings.
Pittsburgh, in its first Super Bowl appearance, and Minnesota, making a third bid for a first Super Bowl title, struggled on offense most of the game. The Vikings offense was completely stymied by Pittsburgh's defense throughout, managing just two field goals. The Steelers got a touchdown run by Franco Harris and finally put the game away on Terry Bradshaw's scoring pass to Larry Brown with 3:31 left.
Final score: Pittsburgh 16, Minnesota 6
Most evenly matched Super Bowls ever
Super Bowl XV (1980-81)
The Philadelphia Eagles were a 3-point favorite vs. the Oakland Raiders.
Jim Plunkett passed for three touchdowns, including an 80-yard strike to Kenny King, as the Raiders became the first wild-card team to win the Super Bowl. Plunkett's touchdown bomb to King - the longest play in Super Bowl history - gave Oakland a commanding 14-0 lead in the first period and they never looked back. Plunkett, who became a starter in the sixth game of the season, was named the game's MVP.
The point spread proved way off base in this one.
Final score: Oakland 27, Philadelphia 10
Most evenly matched Super Bowls ever
Super Bowl XVI (1981-82)
The San Francisco 49ers were a 2-point favorite vs. the Cincinnati Bengals
Ray Wersching's Super Bowl record-tying four field goals and Joe Montana's controlled passing helped lift the 49ers to their first NFL championship. After trailing 20-0 at halftime, the Bengals rebounded in the second half, closing the gap to 20-14. But Wersching added two early fourth-period field goals to increase the 49ers' lead to 26-14 and the defense made it stand up. The Bengals actually outgained the Niners in total offense but they turned the ball over five times. The game marked the first time in Super Bowl history that a team lost despite gaining more total yards and scoring more touchdowns.
Final score: San Francisco 26, Bengals 21
Most evenly matched Super Bowls ever
Super Bowl XVII (1982-83)
The Miami Dolphins were a 2-point favorite vs. the Washington Redskins.
John Riggins, the game's most valuable player, ran for a Super Bowl-record 166 yards on 38 carries to spark Washington's victory over AFC champion Miami. It was Riggins's fourth straight 100-yard rushing game during the playoffs, also a record. The win marked Washington's first NFL title since 1942.
Final score: Washington 27, Miami 17
Most evenly matched Super Bowls ever
Super Bowl XVIII (1983-84)
The Washington Redskins were a 3-point favorite vs. the Los Angeles Raiders.
The Raiders dominated the Redskins from the outset and achieved the most lopsided victory to that point in Super Bowl history. Marcus Allen, who rushed for a Super Bowl-record 191 yards on 20 carries, scored on touchdown runs of 5 and 74 yards; the latter was a Super Bowl record. Allen was named the game's most valuable player.
The oddsmakers sure got this one wrong.
Final score: Los Angeles 38, Washington 9
Most evenly matched Super Bowls ever
Super Bowl XIX (1984-85)
The San Francisco 49ers were a 3-point favorite over the Miami Dolphins.
The 49ers captured their second Super Bowl title with a dominating offense and a defense that tamed Miami's explosive passing attack. Running back Roger Craig set a Super Bowl record by scoring three touchdowns on pass receptions of 8 and 16 yards and a run of 2 yards. San Francisco's Joe Montana was voted the game's most valuable player.
Apparently, the Niners should have been a 3-touchdown favorite.
Final score: San Francisco 38, Miami 16
Most evenly matched Super Bowls ever
Super Bowl XXII (1987-88)
The Denver Broncos were a 3-point favorite vs. the Washington Redskins.
The Redskins spotted the Broncos a 10-point lead, then enjoyed a record-setting second quarter en route to a blowout victory. Redskins quarterback Doug Williams led the second-period explosion by passing for a Super Bowl record-tying four touchdowns, including two passes to Ricky Sanders, a 27-yard toss to Gary Clark, and an 8-yard pass to Clint Didier.
In retrospect, maybe the Broncos shouldn't have been a 3-point favorite but a 30-point underdog.
Final score: Washington 42, Denver 10
Most evenly matched Super Bowls ever
Super Bowl XXXV (2000-2001)
The Baltimore Ravens were a 3-point favorite vs. the New York Giants.
The Ravens defense dominated from the outset and did not allow the Giants offense to score. New York's only touchdown came during a wild span of 36 seconds of game time when an interception and two kicks were returned for scores. Ravens linebacker Ray Lewis was chosen the game's MVP and the defensive unit stamped itself as one of the best ever.
Clearly, the Ravens were better than a 3-point favorite in this game.
Final score: Baltimore 34, New York 7.
Most evenly matched Super Bowls ever
Super Bowl XLV (2010-11)
The Green Bay Packers were a 2.5-point favorite vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Aaron Rodgers turned the Green Bay Packers into Super Bowl champions once again. Rodgers was named MVP after throwing three touchdown passes and Nick Collins returned an interception for another score, leading the Packers to a victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers. It was Green Bay's fourth Super Bowl title.
This was a rare Super Bowl where a low point spread foreshadowed a close game.
Final score: Green Bay 31, Pittsburgh 25
Most evenly matched Super Bowls ever
Super Bowl XLVI (2011-12)
The New England Patriots are a 3-point favorite vs. the New York Giants.
Like other Super Bowls with low point spreads, this figures to be a great game - but will it be close?
Complete coverage: Super Bowl XLVI
The Patriots are notorious for running up the score and the Giants are currently on an offensive roll, so it would be no surprise if one team posted a margin of victory that far exceeds a field goal.
But these teams have some history of playing tight games and the Patriots know all too well about the Giants being underdogs. In 2008, New England was favored by 12 points and pursuing perfection, but New York's defense battered Tom Brady, and Eli Manning connected with Plaxico Burress on a late touchdown to win the Giants' third Super Bowl. Final score: Giants 17, Patriots 14.
This year, the Patriots are again rolling into the Super Bowl having won 10 straight, with their last loss being to -- you guessed it -- the Giants back in early November. That score: Giants 24, Patriots 20.
So, like last year's Packers-Steelers title game, this could turn out to be one of the few Super Bowls that is close on paper - and in reality.