California lawmakers call for crackdown on wildfire betting on prediction markets

Wagering on wildfires — that's what some people are doing on prediction markets.

People are betting on when a wildfire could start, how long it will last, how far it will spread and even whether homes will burn.

Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket allow people to place bets on the outcomes of real-world events. Now, you can add destructive wildfires to the list.

But lawmakers say betting on a disaster crosses a line, and they're now pushing for new restrictions to stop it.

"The thought of people choosing to make a buck off of that, it's just gross," said Lizz Porter, a Colfax resident who lost her home in the 2021 River Fire.

For Porter, wildfires are a constant concern.

"It's a constant presence in our day-to-day lives," Porter said.

Her home was among more than 100 destroyed in the 2021 River Fire. She says the idea of people betting on wildfires is an insult to injury.

"These are real people. Like we are real people and it's infuriating," Porter said.

Now, California Sens. Adam Schiff and Alex Padilla are joining several other senators from across the country calling for a crackdown on betting platforms offering wildfire-related wagers.

The lawmakers argue profiting off the suffering of others is wrong, while also raising concerns that wildfire betting could create a dangerous financial incentive.

"There's also the heightened risk—according to state and local fire officials—that individuals could be tempted to commit arson in order to make sure their bets are successful," the senators wrote in a letter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Ann Skeet, senior director of leadership ethics at the Markkula Center for Applied Ethics, also questions what allowing these types of bets says about society.

"The fabric of society is fraying a little bit when we're betting on the harm and demise of our neighbors," Skeet said.

The senators' letter also points to Polymarket, where more than $1.2 million was wagered on the 2025 Palisades and Eaton fires.

Currently, the Dodd-Frank Act prohibits certain event betting on things like assassination and terrorism, but wildfires and other natural disasters are not included.

"But nobody really anticipated this level of depravity, really, that people would stoop to betting on this kind of weather event," Skeet said.

Lawmakers are now calling for more guardrails when it comes to putting wagers on disasters, arguing the consequences are not a safe bet.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has until Aug. 14 to respond to the senators' letter.

Meanwhile, Porter hopes any new restrictions apply not just to wildfires, but to betting on all natural disasters.