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Ostrowski: Week 3 Vegas Perspective

By Joe Ostrowski-

(CBS) Call it beginner's luck. In last week's "Vegas Perspective" debut, I went 3-0 against the spread with the Bears, Texans and Cardinals. It was similar to a skinnier 21-year-old version of myself feeling that rush of a red-hot craps table for the first time in Vegas -- clueless and winning.

Those memories were nothing compared to the weekend that 29-year-old Aaron Lewis had. He put down $5 on a 15-team parlay card for a very slim chance at winning $100,000. Odds of winning the Delaware Sports Lottery prize were 32,000-to-1.He started 14-for-14. The problem was that Lewis took the Colts -3 on Monday night and couldn't find anywhere to hedge his bet, and the Eagles rallied for the win.

Sharp (expert) money

(Last week: 2-1)
Jets (-3) over the Bears
Bills (-2.5) over the Chargers
Vikings (+10) over the Saints

Public money

(Last week: 0-2)
Cowboys (-1) over the Rams (92 percent)
Colts (-7) over the Jaguars (88 percent)
49ers (-3) over the Cardinals (82 percent)

Line moves

On Monday, the Bears visiting the Jets opened as a pick 'em. The wiseguys jumped in on New York, making Chicago field goal underdogs.

Vegas was all over the Bills hosting the Chargers. It went from a pick to Buffalo favored by 2.5.
The Ravens at the Browns was the third pick 'em game that had major movement. Baltimore is laying 2 points on the road.

My picks

(Last week: 3-0)

Buffalo (-2.5) vs San Diego

The Chargers are set up for a classic letdown. Antonio Gates won't repeat that three-touchdown performance against the Seahawks. Ryan Mathews has a sprained MCL. San Diego's body clocks will be at 10 a.m. for kickoff. Buffalo is 8-2 against the spread in its last 10 games at home, and it will start 2014 with a 3-0 record.

Pick: Bills -2.5

Carolina (-3) vs Pittsburgh

The Steelers have been outscored 50-9 over their last six quarters. The Panthers have quietly taken eight straight at home by nearly 17 points per game. Ron Rivera's team has also won 13 of its last 14 in the regular season.

Pick: Panthers -3

Bears (+3) at New York Jets

Last week, the Bears had a 17-point comeback, and the Jets fell apart, up by 18. Alshon Jeffery should be healthier. New York's bread and butter is at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. It's a good thing for the Bears that most games are won through the air. Aaron Rodgers threw for 346 yards and three touchdowns against this Jets secondary. We'll take another timeout, Chris Webber, I mean Marty Mornhinweg.

Pick: Bears +3

Survivor picks

(Last week: 2-1)

This is simple. Your options are either New England or New Orleans, both at home. Looking ahead, Oakland coming to town is certainly the easiest Pats game on the schedule. The Saints get Tampa Bay in two weeks. Here's how I'd list them.

1) Patriots over the Raiders

2) Saints over the Vikings

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