Despite Brandon Johnson's low approval ratings, analysts say it's too early to predict Chicago mayor's race

How big a hill does Mayor Brandon Johnson have to climb for his re-election campaign? Analysts say his decision to revisit the corporate head tax, which the City Council rejected last year, plays into it.

Just two days after candidates for mayor began submitting nominating petitions to get on the ballot, Johnson rolled out his 2027 budget plan on Wednesday, and renewed his call for a head tax, which most aldermen had already warned him was a non-starter.

The mayor's budget address came as a poll commissioned by the University of Chicago's Mansueto Institute found Johnson's approval rating sits at 22%.

This week on "The Angle," former Chicago Public Schools CEO Paul Vallas, who lost to Johnson in the mayoral runoff election in 2023, and former Chicago Alderwoman Leslie Hairston weighed in on the upcoming race for mayor.

Vallas said it's too soon to predict who will win the race for mayor, despite Johnson's low approval ratings.

"At about this time, I was polling at 10 or 11 percent in the last election," Vallas said. "It's way too early, way too early."

So far, at least 14 candidates have announced plans to run for mayor. 

Illinois Secretary of State Alexi Giannoulias has raised more than $20 million for his campaign, more than all of the other declared candidates combined. While he is leading the field in early polling, with 25% of likely voters naming him their top choice according to the Mansueto Institute poll, Vallas said that's "nothing to get too excited about."

"Particularly when you have the name recognition Alexi Giannoulias has, and he's probably already spent $5 to $6 million on TV," he said.

Asked if she would bet on Giannoulias or the field in the race for mayor, Hairston said she's not taking the bait.

"I'm not a betting girl," she said. "I'm going to at the numbers, and I think that it is too early, and I think we need to look at the history of polling and elections over the past eight years. And, so, we've had candidates in the past that have polled really well and lost."