OAKLAND (BCN) - A jury expert testified Tuesday that he thinks there is a "reasonable likelihood" that former Your Black Muslim Bakery leader Yusuf Bey IV and co-defendant Antoine Mackey could not get a fair trial in Alameda County in their triple murder case.

In the second day of a hearing on a motion by Bey and Mackey to move their trial to another county, social psychologist Bryan Edelman of Alamo said their case has received "saturation" coverage from Bay Area news organizations, including more that 1,500 articles.

Bey, 24, is accused of ordering the murder of Oakland journalist Chauncey Bailey on Aug. 2, 2007, because Bailey was working on a story about the financial problems at the bakery, which was founded by Bey's father, Yusuf Bey, in 1968. The bakery closed in late 2007 after it went bankrupt.

Bey is also accused of ordering the fatal shootings of 31-year-old Odell Robertson Jr. in Oakland on July 8, 2007, and of 36-year-old Michael Wills in Oakland on July 12, 2007. He and Mackey, a 24-year-old bakery associate, are each charged with three counts of murder for the deaths of the three men.

Edelman said some articles, such as stories that Bey had a hit list of people that he wanted to have killed and that he wanted an associate to kill witnesses in his murder case, have likely had a prejudicial effect on potential jurors in Alameda County.

Edelman said a survey he conducted of more than 400 potential jurors in Alameda County found that 70 percent of those who recognized the case said they think Bey is guilty and only 2.6 percent think he is not guilty. He said 54 percent of those surveyed who knew about the case said they think Mackey is guilty.

Edelman, who was hired by lawyers for Bey and Mackey, said 83 percent of potential jurors in Alameda County said they are familiar with the murder case. Only 18.5 percent of potential jurors in Los Angeles County who were questioned said they're familiar with the case, he said.

He said the Alameda County recognition rate is in the top ten of all the high-profile cases around the country that he and other jury experts have studied.

Prosecutor Melissa Krum has said the change-of-venue motion is "premature" because she thinks the media coverage has been overstated by the defense. She said the defense hasn't proven that Bey and Mackey can't get a fair trial locally.

In cross-examining Edelman Tuesday, Krum contrasted Bey and Mackey's case with that of Johannes Mehserle, the former BART police officer whose trial was moved to Los Angeles County because a judge found that he might not get a fair trial in Alameda County.

Mehserle was convicted in July of involuntary manslaughter for the shooting death of unarmed passenger Oscar Grant III at the Fruitvale BART station in Oakland on Jan. 1, 2009.

There were riots and protests in Oakland after Grant was killed, but Edelman conceded that there has not been any violence or protests connected to Bey and Mackey's case.

Alameda County Superior Court Judge Thomas Reardon, who is presiding over the hearing, seemed skeptical of Edelman's facts and conclusions when he questioned the expert on Tuesday.

Reardon said he thinks Edelman's finding that there have been more than 1,500 articles about the Bey and Mackey case is "inflationary" because many articles were counted more than once.

As an example, Reardon cited articles published by the Bay Area News Group, which owns several newspapers in the region. The judge said that if the same article appeared in multiple Bay Area News Group papers, Edelman counted it multiple times instead of just once.

Reardon said it appears to him that Edelman is exaggerating the number of articles to try to justify his conclusion that the trial should be moved.

The hearing on the defense's change-of-venue motion is expected to conclude Thursday morning.

Reardon hasn't said whether he will take the matter under submission or rule from the bench, but the lawyers in the case say they expect he will rule from the bench on Thursday.

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