Flood watch extended for Bay Area, Central Coast; next storms bringing heavy rain, damaging winds
A series of powerful Pacific storms will batter the Bay Area and Central Coast through Christmas week, bringing periods of heavy rain, damaging winds, flooding and dangerous surf, forecasters said Monday.
The National Weather Service has extended a flood watch for the North Bay through 10 p.m. Friday, with a broader flood watch for the rest of the Bay Area and Central Coast set to begin at 10 a.m. Tuesday and run through Friday night.
Light to moderate rain will linger over the region on Monday as a stationary front stalls over the Bay Area, adding about a half-inch of rain to many inland locations and 1 to 1.5 inches in the coastal mountains such as the Santa Cruz Mountains and Mount Tamalpais. Minor nuisance flooding and continued rises on rivers and streams in the North Bay remain possible on Monday, including along the Russian River between Geyserville and Jimtown and near Mark West Creek.
Monday is described as a transition day between Sunday's "first big round" of rain and two stronger storm systems due from Tuesday into Thursday. Forecasters urged residents to use the relative lull to clear drains, secure outdoor items and finish storm preparations before conditions worsen.
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By Tuesday morning, the Weather Service said rain is expected to intensify first over the North Bay, then spread south into the rest of the Bay Area and Central Coast through the afternoon and evening as a rapidly deepening Pacific low tracks parallel to the California coast.
That system will tap into a robust plume of subtropical moisture and result in heavy rain across the region, the Weather Service said. Between Tuesday and early Wednesday, projected rainfall totals include 1.5 to 3.5 inches across the North Bay, 1 to 3 inches in the Santa Cruz Mountains, 2 to 3 inches along the Santa Lucia Range, and 1 to 1.5 inches across interior parts of the Bay Area, Monterey Bay region and interior Central Coast.
A second low-pressure system will then organize offshore late Wednesday and lift north along the coast into Thursday, bringing another widespread round of moderate to heavy rain. forecasters said. From late Wednesday through Friday, that system could add 2 to 4 inches of rain regionwide, with locally up to 5 inches in the mountains, before showers gradually diminish into the weekend.
The multiple storms in quick succession are expected to quickly saturate soils and heighten the risk for urban flooding, along with sharply rising creeks and streams, and minor flooding along larger rivers such as the Russian and Napa rivers.
The storms will also bring very hazardous winds, especially Tuesday night and again late Wednesday into Thursday. The Weather Service issued a high wind watch for the Bay Area and Central Coast from 7 p.m. Tuesday to 4 a.m. Wednesday, which forecasters expect to upgrade to a high wind warning. Coastal areas and higher elevations could see gusts potentially reaching 70 mph as the main cold front sweeps through.
The combination of saturated ground and strong gusts will likely topple trees and power lines, leading to widespread power outages and hazardous travel conditions this week, the Weather Service said. Winds are expected to ease slightly by Wednesday morning before ramping up again Wednesday night into Thursday with the second system, although current forecasts suggest slightly weaker gusts of about 40 to 60 mph.
The severe winds will also create extremely dangerous conditions over the coastal waters, where storm-force to isolated hurricane-force gusts will be possible, and along area beaches. Beach conditions will deteriorate markedly from late Tuesday through Friday, with large waves, strong rip currents, and powerful onshore winds making coastal recreation dangerous. Mariners and beachgoers were urged to avoid the water during the height of the storms and to heed all warnings and advisories.
Forecasters also highlighted an elevated risk for thunderstorms, including a small possibility of severe storms, with both major systems this week. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a general thunderstorm area for the region Tuesday into Wednesday, with a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms along the coastal Central Coast, including Monterey and Big Sur, Wednesday into Thursday.
Through Friday, the overarching message from the Weather Service was one of preparation and caution as the region faces days of impactful weather. Residents are encouraged to monitor forecasts, secure loose outdoor items, keep devices charged in case of power outages, and have multiple ways to receive warnings as the storm sequence unfolds.