Will Turkey And EU Divorce Before Wedding?

The cautious courtship between Turkey and the European Union looks increasingly like it might be headed for a messy and acrimonious breakup.

They were a mismatched couple from the beginning: one wealthy, mostly Christian and liberal, the other far poorer, overwhelmingly Muslim and largely conservative. Perhaps it's no surprise that over time the mood has deteriorated from buoyant optimism to mutual recriminations and a seemingly hopeless inability to communicate.

The mood is likely to get noticeably worse after next Wednesday, when the EU releases a progress report that sizes up Turkey. The Associated Press saw a draft Friday that said Turkey is dragging its feet on reform and failing to meet minimum human rights standards.

The consequences of further worsening of relations between Turkey and the EU could be dramatic and far-reaching: At stake is an ambitious vision of bringing a Muslim nation into the fold of liberal European society, proving that a "clash of civilizations" between the West and Islam is not inevitable.

Many analysts say that's why the two parties are likely to continue talking for the foreseeable future, never committing to a clean split which would deliver the message to Muslims everywhere that the West is not prepared to deal with them on equal footing.

"Of course I support the EU (bid)," said Bayram Kapici, a 38-year-old security guard. "But the question is, what will our place in the EU be? I mean, we're Muslims. Are we barbarians? How will they see us?"

For the moment, enthusiasm toward Turkey's bid has cooled dramatically on both sides, and Turkish leaders' passionate claims that an "alliance of civilizations" can replace the much-feared "clash" are starting to ring hollow.

Turkish public support for membership in the EU has fallen below 50 percent, and many believe that perceived insults from the European Union — in the form of frequent criticism and seemingly endless demands for reform — play directly into the hands of nationalists and Islamists waiting to tap into a broken and defensive Turkish psyche.

Europeans, meanwhile, have a litany of complaints about Turkey: Its refusal to look objectively at the past, notably the massacre of Armenians after World War I that many historians call a genocide; its intransigence on key diplomatic issues like recognizing the Greek-speaking part of Cyprus, which has been a full EU member since 2004; its poor record on human rights and treatment of its Kurdish minority; its intolerance to free speech that runs to the extent that "insulting Turkishness" is a crime; its outsized admiration for its military; its unwillingness to abandon some elements of its Islamic culture, such as hardline attitudes toward adultery and homosexuality.

Many here fault Turkey's old rivals Greece and Cyprus for the growing acrimony, claiming they are lobbying the EU to take a hard line over Turkey's refusal to extend its customs union with the EU to the Greek Cypriot part of Cyprus. Turkey does not recognize the Cyprus government and props up the internationally unrecognized administration in the north of the island.

On Thursday, a meeting that was supposed to be a last-ditch effort to settle the Cyprus problem was canceled, leaving the Turks with very little time to negotiate before the EU's year-end deadline to concede or see talks suspended.

What would happen if the talks collapsed?

First, the symbolic value of having a 99 percent Muslim, democratic nation firmly integrated into the West would be lost. Turkey's 71 million citizens, educated to look to Europe for inspiration since the country's secular transformation in the 1920s, might look elsewhere for positive reinforcement.

"Nationalists are benefiting from this, there's no question about it," said pollster and political science professor Hakan Yilmaz.

Islamic countries of the Middle East, Central Asia and North Africa, with which Turkey's Islamic-rooted government has been forging increasingly close ties, might be natural surrogates for a Turkey spurned.

But there is a sense on the street that a complete breakup with the EU is out of the question.

Yilmaz said many EU leaders were just playing to the crowd by publicly belittling Turkey. "Some in the European Union public love this humiliation — particularly in France," he said, alluding to a proposed French law that would make it a crime to say Turks did not commit genocide against Armenians.

Meanwhile, some leading politicians on both sides are trying to make the relationship so miserable that Turkey will just walk away on its own, said Ilter Turan, a political analyst at Istanbul Bilgi University.

But Turan added that any Turkish government that walked away from the EU would be excoriated by the Turkish public, despite the current anti-EU mood.

The key question appears to be how to persuade Turkey to change without damaging national pride.

"There is one thing where the Turkish public seems to be rather adamant," Turan said, getting to the heart of what Turks want in this relationship. "If there is to be a union, it is to be on equal grounds."

Kapici, the security guard, said he didn't think the EU would ever take Turkey, but at least it was good for his country to try.

"I'm a Muslim, praise God," he said. "But I don't want to be part of an Arab Union or something. It's always better for Turkey to be on the side of Europe."