VP: Steppingstone Or Dead End?

News analysis by David Paul Kuhn, CBSNews.com Chief Political Writer

Yes, experts agree.

So no component of the vice presidency is, "be careful for what you wish for"?

"That's correct," at least not anymore, says Stephen Hess, a presidential historian at the Brookings Institution. "If they get this job there is some chance they will become a president by accident. If they get this job there is a fair chance they will be the heir apparent if the president serves two terms, so those are both pretty powerful incentives for a politician."

John Garner, Franklin Roosevelt's first vice president (he had three), famously quipped resentfully in 1933, "the vice presidency isn't worth a pitcher of warm piss." A few decades later, the young Richard Nixon, vice president from 1953 to 1961, redefined the role of the number two. And the American vice presidency would never be the same.

By the late 1970s, when Walter Mondale took over the job, to be followed by George H.W. Bush, the vice presidency was cemented as a job of worth, instead of one of political insignificance.

Even into the 1960s, taking the number-two spot was not an obvious move for a politician looking to get ahead. George Washington University presidential historian Leo Ribuffo, favors one anecdote about the vice presidency above all.

"[Lyndon] Johnson supposedly said when he took it, 'Lots of presidents die in office, so why not?' Now very few people are as tacky as Johnson to say that, but he's right," Ribuffo says.

Although Ribuffo admits the story may be apocryphal it was apt for the time. Nixon's integral role in the Eisenhower administration was still considered more the exception than the rule. And, of course, in a tragic twist of fate, Johnson had no idea how prescient the impolitic aside was.

"I guess you'd have to ask Calvin Coolidge, Theodore Roosevelt, Lyndon Johnson, and Gerald Ford" if the vice presidency is all is all it's cracked up to be, Hess says, chuckling slightly, referring to VPs who went on to the presidency because the number one died, or was forced, from office. In total, nine of 46 vice presidents have replaced the president before the end of his term.

"I'd say given that we've only had 43 presidents of the United States, that if you want to be president, you're one step up if you accept the job which is one step removed from presidency," says Hess.

For two centuries of American history, the least of reasons was truly the only reason most accepted the vice presidency. Then came Nixon. He was a 39-year-old, smart and respected Washington insider. For many younger Americans, it's almost unimaginable.

"But go back to 1950s, Richard Nixon was the first powerful vice president," explains Lee Edwards, a presidential historian at the Heritage Foundation. "Both times Eisenhower had two serious illnesses, Nixon chaired several meetings of the Cabinet and just filled in very nicely.

"Towards the end of the first term " this would have been '55 and '56 " Nixon was given all kinds of responsibilities, serious diplomatic things," Edwards continues. "Remember the very famous 'kitchen debate' and his trip to Latin America? These were things that were substantive on his part."

The nation's first vice president, John Adams, came from a different political party than George Washington, although Washington tried to not affiliate with any party. Adams was also Washington's chief political opponent.

Can't quite imagine President George W. Bush serving with John Kerry, or vice versa, can you? But that was a different time, when vice presidents were chosen by the Electoral College and not by the candidate. (Considering that the next three veeps after Adams came from the Democratic-Republican Party, it's clear American democracy wasn't always of two minds alone.)

Adams said of the job then, "[The vice presidency] is the most insignificant office that ever the invention of man contrived or his imagination conceived."

Today, in the shadow of Mondale, George H.W. Bush and Al Gore, the current job has reached new heights. And most experts consider the current number two, Dick Cheney, the most powerful vice president ever.

"Starting with Richard Nixon, some might say, but certainly starting with Walter Mondale, presidents seem to make some deliberate effort to give their vice presidents some substantive assignments so that each one we say is the most powerful vice president in history," Hess says. "Then we say Dick Cheney is, and of course we are always right. Each one has been more powerful than the previous one."

The Constitution vests only one power to the vice president: as president of the Senate, he can cast the decisive vote to break a 50-50 tie.

Cheney's influence is well beyond that. He is considered an invaluable adviser to President Bush, both for his insight and loyalty. Cheney was instrumental in organizing both the war in Iraq and the administration's energy policy. He is Mr. Bush's most vehement campaigner as well as his bridge to the political right.

But with all of Cheney's power, he has expressed no interest in being president (the ambitious GOP congressmen love Cheney for this reason). Regardless, his bad heart likely precludes it.

"Presidential candidates are now looking for guys who are not just politically useful but can take their place," Edwards says, "because I think they realize the American electorate has become more sophisticated."

Mark Twain said history doesn't repeat but it does rhyme. As the speculation reaches a fever pitch regarding the impending Kerry decision, a few facts might prove relevant for the sophisticated American who has followed the veepstakes.

There has never been an all-Catholic presidential ticket. Does that preclude Kerry from selecting Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack, Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware, Sen. Richard Durbin of Illinois (the latest VP dark horse) or retired Gen. Wesley Clark? We'll see.

And for all that's said about being one step away from the presidency, in the 20th century, only one vice president was elected president after the completion of his vice-presidential term — that was George H.W. Bush. Al Gore came close in 2000.

For a man with unabashed presidential ambitions, like Sen. John Edwards (considered the most likely Kerry selection), this fact may be discouraging. But then again, Edwards considers himself an optimist — and history, for optimists, is just history.