Super-Storms Seen; NE In For Big One?

Hurricane Katrina was the most destructive storm the United States has ever seen, and a growing number of scientists believe it was just the beginning of what could be a long stretch of wild and devastating weather.

Many scientists point to global warming as the cause, but others dispute that.

Still others say, global warming or not, even normal weather patterns paint an ominous picture for the Northeast as soon as this year, and over the next few.

In the backdrop, the new hurricane season. It starts June 1.

As CBS News Correspondent Jim Acosta reports, months after the series of devastating hurricanes that included Katrina, a fierce scientific debate is swirling over whether those storms were just freaks of nature, or the spawn of global warming.

"We need to say to the public that there is this possible risk of increasing hurricane intensity associated with global warming," warns Georgia Tech climate researcher Judith Curry.

In an upcoming article for the journal "Science," Curry argues that, over the last 35 years, greenhouse gases have warmed sea surface temperatures worldwide by one degree. Over that same span, she says, the number of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes doubled across the globe.

"That extra half-degree, extra degree can provide a lot of extra fuel for the hurricanes," Curry stresses.

She points to how Katrina jumped from Category 1 to 5 status after crossing a deep pool of 90 degree water in the Gulf of Mexico.

If those temperatures keep rising, she worries, even more powerful hurricanes will be unleashed.

Asked what happens if sea surface temperatures jump another degree over the next 30-35 years, Curry responds, "That's a frightening prospect."

Acosta notes that the government's hurricane forecasters have heard these dire warnings before, "and they're not impressed. They're chalking these storms up to normal weather cycles."At a September congressional hearing, Max Mayfield, head of the National Hurricane Center, said, "Without invoking global warming, I think that the natural variability alone is what this can be attributed to."

The government's weather agency, the AccuWeather meteorologist Joe Bastardi is more concerned about the upcoming hurricane season.

He believes the Northeast could be in for a direct hit, telling reporters, "I will be surprised if, over the next five years, a major hurricane does not hit the northeastern part of the United States."

Some scientists worry that's made more dangerous by global warming, but Bastardi says, "It has nothing to do with it. Well, it may have something to do with it, but these storms are coming back whether there is global warming or not."

On The Early Show Tuesday, Russ Mitchell asked Bastardi about his having said the Northeast is "staring down the barrel of a gun."

"I'm concerned that gun is loaded," Bastardi told Mitchell, "and the question is, when is the trigger gonna be pulled? The reason is, we look at past weather patterns, and I'm not predicting anything that hasn't happened before, in 1938, 1944, 1954. These things have all happened. They're very, very similar cycles in the climate are they're going on right now. That's what we're looking at.

"If you live in Long Island, Atlantic City, New England, some of these places that got crunched in those storms, you ought to be very, very concerned about it.

"The thing I'm trying to bring to the table here, I've got to get people to understand what happened in those times. A lot of the debate now is based on computer modeling, global warming, things like that.

But, this has all happened before. The boardwalk in Atlantic City, pieces of the boardwalk were pushed half a mile back to the other side of Atlantic City's island. In the '38 hurricane, Providence (R.I.) is 1500 feet above sea level. There was 15 feet of water in Providence."

As for the '06 hurricane season overall, Bastardi sees a smaller number of storms than last year but, a lot of times, the East Coast, and this cycle we've identified, Gulf to East Coast, Gulf to East Coast, they swing back and forth. A lot of times, when you have less numbers of storms, that's when the East Coast takes it. In '54, there were only 11 named storms, for instance. In 1995, there were 18 named storms, '96 was a down year, and the East Coast got hit."

Will the Northeast get slammed this year?

"My opinion is, within the next ten years, we'll get hit once or twice by a Category 3 or greater, probably sooner than later. I'm very worried about this year, just looking at the initial data."